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Richmond-Petersburg

Richmond-Petersburg

Latest: 2024↓ R+1.7 vs 2020

Leans Democratic — 1.6M residents — 32 counties

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Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
55.5%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)
7.8%
▶Black / African American(15)
28.2%
▶Asian(6)
3.7%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)
0.7%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)
0.3%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)
0.1%
Multiracial / Other
4.4%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Evangelical Protestant22.4%44.3%
Catholic10.7%21.1%
Mainline Protestant9.0%17.8%
Other5.2%10.2%
Black Protestant3.0%5.9%
LDS (Mormon)0.9%1.7%
Orthodox Christian0.3%0.7%
Non-religious49.3%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Harris+9.3
2020Biden+11.1
2016Clinton+6.6
2012Obama+4.6
2008Obama+6.0
2004Bush+10.2
2000Bush+11.1
1996Dole+7.0
1992Bush+8.8
View full election history →

Richmond-Petersburg is a media market that has a population of 1,576,081. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+9.3. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.

Richmond-Petersburg Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202454.0%44.7%D+9.3R+1.7
202054.7%43.6%D+11.1D+4.5
201650.6%44.1%D+6.6D+2.0
201251.6%47.0%D+4.6R+1.4
200852.6%46.6%D+6.0D+16.2
200444.6%54.8%R+10.2D+0.9
200043.2%54.3%R+11.1R+4.1
199642.9%49.9%R+7.0D+1.8
199238.6%47.4%R+8.8D+15.9
198837.1%61.8%R+24.7D+2.9
198435.9%63.5%R+27.6R+12.6
198040.3%55.3%R+15.0R+6.6
197644.7%53.1%R+8.4D+33.1
197228.4%69.9%R+41.5R+27.9
196831.1%44.7%R+13.6R+3.0
196444.7%55.2%R+10.5D+3.4
196042.6%56.6%R+14.0D+11.5
195628.7%54.2%R+25.5R+11.3
195242.7%56.9%R+14.2R+28.7
194849.6%35.1%D+14.5—
Political Identity

What defines Richmond-Petersburg?

Richmond-Petersburg has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.

Constituent Counties

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Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Richmond-Petersburg

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Chesterfield378K
D+9.0
112,86994,030209,73024.7%
Henrico336K
D+28.9
115,04062,882180,64221.2%
Richmond City229K
D+66.3
88,71017,041108,14312.7%
Hanover113K
R+25.8
26,73345,56973,0878.6%
Prince George43K
R+21.3
6,84210,59017,5962.1%
Louisa40K
R+26.2
8,77915,08424,0672.8%
Petersburg City34K
D+72.8
11,2191,70213,0771.5%
Caroline32K
R+8.8
7,9579,51117,6532.1%
Powhatan32K
R+44.1
5,73414,91820,8412.5%
Dinwiddie28K
R+23.1
5,9429,54915,5891.8%
Goochland26K
R+18.6
7,87511,52119,6162.3%
New Kent25K
R+31.9
5,64110,97416,7442.0%
Hopewell City23K
D+13.8
5,0783,8389,0061.1%
Prince Edward22K
R+2.6
4,5394,7829,4241.1%
King William19K
R+40.6
3,3888,08011,5611.4%
Colonial Heights City18K
R+32.5
2,9825,8838,9411.1%
Buckingham17K
R+23.5
2,9884,8477,9150.9%
Brunswick16K
D+8.5
4,1843,5237,7380.9%
Nottoway16K
R+22.4
2,6364,1686,8530.8%
Amelia13K
R+44.4
2,2145,7768,0320.9%
Northumberland12K
R+21.2
3,2024,9388,2051.0%
Lunenburg12K
R+22.8
2,2533,5945,8790.7%
Greensville11K
D+9.3
2,3341,9364,2960.5%
Lancaster11K
R+7.0
3,3553,8667,2790.9%
Middlesex11K
R+27.4
2,4734,3576,8820.8%
Sussex11K
D+4.4
2,5392,3224,8920.6%
Essex11K
R+7.8
2,7753,2456,0640.7%
Cumberland10K
R+22.2
2,1173,3355,4860.6%
Richmond9K
R+30.2
1,4392,6974,1610.5%
King and Queen7K
R+25.7
1,5362,6084,1730.5%
Charles City7K
D+10.8
2,3841,9174,3410.5%
Emporia City6K
D+31.0
1,4197442,1780.3%
32 countiesTotal votes: 850,091
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Richmond-Petersburg's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
  • Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004
  • Closest recent contest: 2012 at just 4.6 points
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Richmond-PetersburgCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 55.5%Black 28.2%Hispanic 7.8%Multiracial 4.4%Asian 3.7%Native American 0.3%
GroupRichmond-PetersburgNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
55.5%57.4%
▶Black / African American(15)
28.2%12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)
7.8%19.3%
Multiracial / Other
4.4%4.0%
▶Asian(6)
3.7%6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)
0.7%0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)
0.3%0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)
0.1%0.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
50.7%(799.1K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -27.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Evangelical Protestant
22.4%44.3%——
Catholic
10.7%21.1%——
Mainline Protestant
9.0%17.8%——
Other
5.2%10.2%——
Black Protestant
3.0%5.9%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.9%1.7%——
Orthodox Christian
0.3%0.7%——
Non-religiousPopulation
49.3%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Richmond-Petersburg media market? 1,576,081 residents across 32 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Richmond-Petersburg vs National1.6M residents

38% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 5pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+8 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
1.6M
local
1.6MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.47%
local
0.47%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
75.7%
local
75.7%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$85,601
local
$85,601National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
10.5%
local
10.5%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
38.4%
local
38.4%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
68.3%
local
68.3%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
39.9 yrs
local
39.9 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.5%
local
15.5%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
17.6%
local
17.6%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
8.2%
local
8.2%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
10.9%
local
10.9%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
89.1%
local
89.1%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Richmond-Petersburg

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
71.3%
vs Previous
+0.9pp
Voting-Age Pop
1,192,877
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Richmond-Petersburg?

Lean DAvg margin: D+9.0 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+6.0
2012
D+4.6
2016
D+6.6
2020
D+11.1
2024
D+9.3
Elasticity
6.5pp
margin range
Party Flips
1
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
D+7.5
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Richmond-Petersburg split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyModerate splitting (63/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateD+9.3D+18.08.7pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 7.9pp
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