Leans Democratic — 34 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
517K
COMPETITIVENESS
Tilt D
2024 PRES
D+6.9
TURNOUT
69.9%
#18 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$98K
COLLEGE+
33%
Place Story
Tilts Democratic since 2008
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Evangelical edge: 47pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 18.7pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 72% non-Hispanic white (+15pp vs national)