How did MT-02, Montana vote in the 2024 presidential election?

MT-02, Montana voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+29.5. The Democratic candidate received 94,499 votes and the Republican candidate received 177,468 out of 280,895 total votes cast, a 2.7-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is MT-02, Montana's political history?

MT-02, Montana has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 12.4 points in 2012.

What are the demographics of MT-02, Montana?

MT-02, Montana has a population of 542,120 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 81.4% non-Hispanic white, 4.2% Hispanic.

Which places are most similar to MT-02, Montana?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar congressional districts to MT-02, Montana are OK-02, NC-08, OK-04. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Montana's 2nd Congressional District

Montana

Safe Republican — presidential lean R+29.5 in 2024

Ask Historian Open in Explore CompareShare image

POPULATION
542K
PRES MARGIN
R+29.5
2024
LEAN
Safe R

Place Story

What defines Montana's 2nd Congressional District

Methodology

Reliably Republican since 2008
- Safe R
- 5 straight R wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Demographically distinctive: 81% non-Hispanic white (+24pp vs national)
- 81% non-Hispanic white (+24pp vs national)
- 4% Hispanic (-15pp vs national)
Biggest swing: R+12.4 in 2012
- 2008 → 2012
Volatile behavior — treat historical margins with caution.

District in State Context

Open in Cartographer

Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside MT-02 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

Unlock with Pro$33/mo

Peer discovery

Similar districts

Districts with comparable demographics and electoral dynamics.

TBD_3

OK-02

Oklahoma

Similarity96%

+7 more

NC-08 and others

Similarity0%

Pro required

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Montana's 2nd Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

MT-02Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 81.4%Native American 7.9%Multiracial 5.0%Hispanic 4.2%Asian 0.7%Black 0.6%

Group	MT-02	State	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	81.4%	83.6%	57.4%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(8)	7.9%	5.6%	0.9%
Multiracial / Other	5.0%	4.9%	4.0%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	4.2%	4.6%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	0.7%	0.8%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(8)	0.6%	0.5%	12.2%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(5)	0.2%	—	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)	0.1%	<0.1%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

MT-02 vs Montana vs National542K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

542K

local

542KState 1.1MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.16%

local

0.16%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

77.1%

local

77.1%State 76.5%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState $73,049National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 11.5%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 35.3%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 69.2%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 40.8 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 15.4%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 20.1%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 2.3%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 4.2%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 95.8%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in MT-02

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

67.2%

vs Previous

-1.5pp

Voting-Age Pop

418,107

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is MT-02?

Safe RAvg margin: R+28.7 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+7.3

2012

R+19.6

2016

R+29.6

2020

R+26.8

2024

R+29.5

Elasticity

22.4pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+22.6

Montana Comparison Set

Other Montana Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

2 sibling districts

Upgrade Path

Unlock District Analytics

Advance from the public dossier into precinct-level, insight-rich district intelligence.

Target plan Pro$33/mo

Precinct data, Smart Insights, full history, and export controls tailored to place pages.

Precinct-Level Data

See results for every neighborhood and voting precinct

Smart Insights

Automated highlights from recent election patterns

Full Historical Access

165 years of election data at every level of geography

CSV Exports

Download any table or chart as a CSV file

Upgrade to Pro$33/mo