Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York Media Market — Elections 1876–2024

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania: Industrial Catholic Metro market. In 2024, voted R+20%. Republican peak: R+63 in 1928.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+20MIT Election Lab
Political typology: Industrial Catholic MetroAkashic typology
Population: 2,102,1102024 5-year
Median household income: $82,7082024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 80.4%2024 5-year
Black: 5.9%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 9.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+12 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+63 in 1928MIT Election Lab

2024 presidential election

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York

TrumpR+20

—

How it voted

Share of the 2024 vote

Donald Trump ✓Republican	59.4%	664,998
Kamala HarrisDemocratic	39.2%	438,156
OtherAll other candidates	1.4%	15,901

D+60

R+60

10 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1876–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1876	No data
1880	No data
1884	No data
1888	No data
1892	−9.3%
1896	−24.3%
1900	−20.8%
1904	−32.6%
1908	−22.4%
1912	+11.9%
1916	−6.6%
1920	−30.4%
1924	−35.2%
1928	−62.6%
1932	−10.3%
1936	+6.6%
1940	−2.6%
1944	−13.6%
1948	−20.9%
1952	−27.1%
1956	−31.3%
1960	−31.2%
1964	+9.4%
1968	−28.8%
1972	−45.6%
1976	−21.8%
1980	−31.8%
1984	−39.5%
1988	−32.3%
1992	−17.9%
1996	−17.6%
2000	−27.2%
2004	−28.9%
2008	−12.9%
2012	−19.4%
2016	−23.8%
2020	−19.9%
2024	−20.3%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−20.3%	438,156	664,998	1,119,055
2020	R	−19.9%	422,556	636,673	1,074,845
2016	R	−23.8%	332,375	556,080	939,766
2012	R	−19.4%	337,495	504,052	856,796
2008	R	−12.9%	377,657	490,853	877,567
2004	R	−28.9%	292,800	532,747	830,628
2000	R	−27.2%	237,016	420,788	676,175
1996	R	−17.6%	221,176	328,210	606,588
1992	R	−17.9%	200,992	314,105	632,699
1988	R	−32.3%	180,478	354,343	538,984
1984	R	−39.5%	160,400	372,289	535,970
1980	R	−31.8%	149,684	306,929	494,367
1976	R	−21.8%	183,283	287,952	480,688
1972	R	−45.6%	119,114	326,225	454,096
1968	R	−28.8%	142,064	273,994	457,486
1964	D	+9.4%	249,945	206,813	458,526
1960	R	−31.2%	164,915	315,396	481,829
1956	R	−31.3%	147,338	282,346	430,692
1952	R	−27.1%	149,207	260,801	411,445
1948	R	−20.9%	125,615	193,612	324,694
1944	R	−13.6%	146,461	192,824	340,870
1940	R	−2.6%	174,371	183,736	359,106
1936	D	+6.6%	202,613	177,359	385,460
1932	R	−10.3%	120,856	149,550	279,645
1928	R	−62.6%	52,602	232,238	287,181
1924	R	−35.2%	63,541	140,070	217,706
1920	R	−30.4%	60,407	116,349	183,870
1916	R	−6.6%	63,175	72,592	143,290
1912	O	+11.9%	51,694	34,572	143,462
1908	R	−22.4%	53,200	85,464	144,320
1904	R	−32.6%	45,215	91,055	140,822
1900	R	−20.8%	52,407	80,906	136,886
1896	R	−24.3%	50,391	83,988	138,458
1892	R	−9.3%	54,633	66,136	123,890
1888	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	No data	—	—	—

Demographics

2024 ACS

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

German

29.6%

Irish

11.3%

English

8.8%

American

6.3%

Italian

5.8%

Polish

2.7%

Scottish

1.1%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

2024 ACS

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 40.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.9%

85+

1.7%

2.6%

75–84

3.2%

5.3%

65–74

5.8%

6.5%

55–64

6.7%

6.0%

45–54

5.9%

6.2%

35–44

6.2%

6.3%

25–34

6.2%

4.3%

18–24

4.2%

8.4%

5–17

7.9%

2.9%

2.8%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

2024 ACS

Median household income

Inflation-adjusted dollars

$82,708

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York ranks near the middle of US counties.

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York$82,708

Pennsylvania$77,971

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

2024 ACS

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

9.1%

Child poverty is below the national average.

Children under 1812.1%

Working age (18–64)8.2%

Seniors (65+)9.3%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

2024 ACS

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

88.1%

speak English only

Spanish5.6%

Other Indo-European4.5%

Asian & Pacific Islander1.2%

Other languages0.7%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

2020 religion census

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Other Christian

12.3%

Catholic & Orthodox

10.0%

Mainline Protestant

9.2%

Methodist

5.1%

Pentecostal & Holiness

1.9%

Non-Christian

1.2%

Baptist

1.0%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 59.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Stretching across south-central Pennsylvania's mix of mid-sized cities and deep-rural townships, this market has historically leaned Republican but seen competitive tightening as Lancaster and York suburbs diversify and commuter populations grow.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of twelve points in 1912 and a Republican high of sixty-three points in 1928. The 2024 margin was twenty points.

A population of 2,102,110, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $82,708 describe the market.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/566/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?

In 2024, Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 20.3 points (R+20), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,119,055 votes cast, 438,156 went Democratic and 664,998 went Republican.

What is Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania's political typology?

Akashic places Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania in the "Industrial Catholic Metro" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 2 times, Republican 31 times, and other 1 times.

When did Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1964.

How many people live in Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania?

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania has a population of 2,102,110 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania?

Median household income in Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania is $82,708 — above the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.

What is the political history of Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 31 went Republican. The market's typology — "Industrial Catholic Metro" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.

Cumberland County, PA	D +9,224
Lancaster County, PA	D +6,026
Mifflin County, PA	R +844

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York has voted Republican in fifteen straight presidential elections — R+20 in 2024.

Key facts

Demographics

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions