Adrian, MI
Safe Republican — shifted 3.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 98K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 84.8% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(13) | 8.9% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 2.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.4% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.3% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 16.0% | 47.1% |
| Catholic | 9.4% | 27.8% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.9% | 14.6% |
| Black Protestant | 2.7% | 7.9% |
| Other | 0.9% | 2.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| Non-religious | 66.0% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+23.0 |
| 2020 | Trump+19.9 |
| 2016 | Trump+20.9 |
| 2012 | Romney+1.3 |
| 2008 | Obama+5.0 |
| 2004 | Bush+10.4 |
| 2000 | Bush+5.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+7.7 |
| 1992 | Clinton+2.8 |
Adrian, MI is a metro area that has a population of 98,415. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+23.0. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37.8% | 60.8% | R+23.0 | R+3.1 |
| 2020 | 39.2% | 59.1% | R+19.9 | D+1.0 |
| 2016 | 36.2% | 57.1% | R+20.9 | R+19.6 |
| 2012 | 48.5% | 49.7% | R+1.3 | R+6.3 |
| 2008 | 51.5% | 46.4% | D+5.0 | D+15.4 |
| 2004 | 44.2% | 54.6% | R+10.4 | R+4.6 |
| 2000 | 45.8% | 51.6% | R+5.8 | R+13.5 |
| 1996 | 47.5% | 39.8% | D+7.7 | D+4.9 |
| 1992 | 39.1% | 36.3% | D+2.8 | D+19.2 |
| 1988 | 41.4% | 57.8% | R+16.4 | D+17.5 |
| 1984 | 32.8% | 66.7% | R+33.9 | R+13.3 |
| 1980 | 35.8% | 56.4% | R+20.6 | R+9.3 |
| 1976 | 43.7% | 55.0% | R+11.3 | D+15.1 |
| 1972 | 35.9% | 62.4% | R+26.4 | R+6.8 |
| 1968 | 36.2% | 55.9% | R+19.7 | R+38.9 |
| 1964 | 59.5% | 40.3% | D+19.2 | D+48.8 |
| 1960 | 35.1% | 64.6% | R+29.5 | D+16.1 |
| 1956 | 27.1% | 72.7% | R+45.6 | D+0.3 |
| 1952 | 26.9% | 72.7% | R+45.9 | R+9.1 |
| 1948 | 30.7% | 67.5% | R+36.8 | — |
What defines Adrian, MI?
Adrian, MI has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (1D, 5R) — a genuine swing geography.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Adrian, MI
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lenawee | 98K | R+23.0 | 20,787 | 33,463 | 55,016 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 23.0% margin
- The 2012 election was decided by just 1.3 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2008, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
| Group | Adrian, MI | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 84.8% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(13) | 8.9% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.3% | 4.0% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 2.4% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.4% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -23.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.0% | 47.1% | — | — | |
| 9.4% | 27.8% | — | — | |
| 4.9% | 14.6% | — | — | |
| 2.7% | 7.9% | — | — | |
| 0.9% | 2.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.4% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 66.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Adrian, MI metro area? 98,415 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
23% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Adrian, MI
How competitive is Adrian, MI?
Do voters in Adrian, MI split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+23.0 | R+23.5 | 0.4pp |