Key West-Key Largo, FL
Safe Republican — shifted 10.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 82K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 63.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 24.6% |
▶Black / African American(8) | 7.3% |
▶Asian(5) | 1.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.7% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.0% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 34.2% | 64.7% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 9.7% | 18.3% |
| Other | 3.7% | 7.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.3% | 6.2% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 2.0% | 3.8% |
| Black Protestant | 2.0% | 3.7% |
| Non-religious | 47.2% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+18.3 |
| 2020 | Trump+7.9 |
| 2016 | Trump+6.9 |
| 2012 | Obama+0.4 |
| 2008 | Obama+4.9 |
| 2004 | Kerry+0.5 |
| 2000 | Gore+1.3 |
| 1996 | Clinton+9.8 |
| 1992 | Clinton+1.9 |
Key West-Key Largo, FL is a metro area that has a population of 81,860. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+18.3. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 40.5% | 58.8% | R+18.3 | R+10.4 |
| 2020 | 45.6% | 53.5% | R+7.9 | R+1.0 |
| 2016 | 44.7% | 51.6% | R+6.9 | R+7.3 |
| 2012 | 49.6% | 49.1% | D+0.4 | R+4.5 |
| 2008 | 51.7% | 46.9% | D+4.9 | D+4.4 |
| 2004 | 49.7% | 49.2% | D+0.5 | R+0.8 |
| 2000 | 48.6% | 47.4% | D+1.3 | R+8.5 |
| 1996 | 46.9% | 37.1% | D+9.8 | D+7.8 |
| 1992 | 36.3% | 34.4% | D+1.9 | D+23.8 |
| 1988 | 38.5% | 60.3% | R+21.9 | D+13.6 |
| 1984 | 32.2% | 67.7% | R+35.5 | R+18.4 |
| 1980 | 36.3% | 53.4% | R+17.1 | R+31.5 |
| 1976 | 56.1% | 41.7% | D+14.4 | D+59.0 |
| 1972 | 27.6% | 72.2% | R+44.6 | R+47.5 |
| 1968 | 37.1% | 34.2% | D+3.0 | R+26.8 |
| 1964 | 64.9% | 35.1% | D+29.7 | R+4.5 |
| 1960 | 67.1% | 32.9% | D+34.2 | D+21.3 |
| 1956 | 56.4% | 43.5% | D+12.9 | R+12.4 |
| 1952 | 62.7% | 37.3% | D+25.3 | R+46.0 |
| 1948 | 83.5% | 12.2% | D+71.3 | — |
What defines Key West-Key Largo, FL?
Key West-Key Largo, FL has been trending Republican — 19pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Key West-Key Largo, FL
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monroe | 82K | R+18.3 | 17,933 | 26,064 | 44,328 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- The 2012 election was decided by just 0.4 points — razor-thin
- Swung 10.4 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 63.7% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 24.6% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(8) | 7.3% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.0% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(5) | 1.1% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.7% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +41.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.2% | 64.7% | — | — | |
| 9.7% | 18.3% | — | — | |
| 3.7% | 7.1% | — | — | |
| 3.3% | 6.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 2.0% | 3.8% | — | — |
| 2.0% | 3.7% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 47.2% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Key West-Key Largo, FL metro area? 81,860 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
39% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+8 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Key West-Key Largo, FL
How competitive is Key West-Key Largo, FL?
Do voters in Key West-Key Largo, FL split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+18.3 | R+15.6 | 2.7pp |