Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — 311K residents — 5 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 92.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 2.3% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 2.0% |
▶Asian(5) | 0.6% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.2% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.7% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 44.6% | 74.7% |
| Mainline Protestant | 10.2% | 17.0% |
| Catholic | 2.1% | 3.5% |
| Black Protestant | 1.4% | 2.4% |
| Other | 1.4% | 2.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| Non-religious | 40.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+57.5 |
| 2020 | Trump+54.8 |
| 2016 | Trump+56.4 |
| 2012 | Romney+45.6 |
| 2008 | McCain+39.0 |
| 2004 | Bush+34.5 |
| 2000 | Bush+21.0 |
| 1996 | Dole+13.4 |
| 1992 | Bush+11.0 |
Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA is a metro area that has a population of 310,842. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+57.5. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20.8% | 78.3% | R+57.5 | R+2.6 |
| 2020 | 21.8% | 76.7% | R+54.8 | D+1.5 |
| 2016 | 19.9% | 76.2% | R+56.4 | R+10.8 |
| 2012 | 26.4% | 71.9% | R+45.6 | R+6.6 |
| 2008 | 29.8% | 68.8% | R+39.0 | R+4.5 |
| 2004 | 32.3% | 66.8% | R+34.5 | R+13.5 |
| 2000 | 38.5% | 59.5% | R+21.0 | R+7.6 |
| 1996 | 38.9% | 52.3% | R+13.4 | R+2.3 |
| 1992 | 38.2% | 49.2% | R+11.0 | D+17.4 |
| 1988 | 35.1% | 63.6% | R+28.5 | D+5.9 |
| 1984 | 32.4% | 66.8% | R+34.4 | R+24.8 |
| 1980 | 43.2% | 52.8% | R+9.6 | R+10.8 |
| 1976 | 49.0% | 47.9% | D+1.2 | D+46.0 |
| 1972 | 26.4% | 71.2% | R+44.8 | R+18.4 |
| 1968 | 25.6% | 52.0% | R+26.4 | R+30.0 |
| 1964 | 51.8% | 48.2% | D+3.6 | D+24.3 |
| 1960 | 39.2% | 59.9% | R+20.7 | R+3.1 |
| 1956 | 40.7% | 58.3% | R+17.6 | D+0.5 |
| 1952 | 40.8% | 58.9% | R+18.1 | R+13.3 |
| 1948 | 46.0% | 50.9% | R+4.8 | — |
What defines Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA?
Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.
Constituent Counties
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Counties in Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sullivan | 161K | R+55.0 | 16,624 | 58,154 | 75,541 | 50.4% |
| Hawkins | 58K | R+68.8 | 3,987 | 22,066 | 26,266 | 17.5% |
| Washington | 54K | R+53.3 | 6,772 | 22,455 | 29,412 | 19.6% |
| Scott | 21K | R+70.4 | 1,607 | 9,392 | 11,057 | 7.4% |
| Bristol City | 17K | R+39.7 | 2,231 | 5,197 | 7,479 | 5.0% |
5 countiesTotal votes: 149,755
Ask the Historian
Explore Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 57.5% margin
- College attainment is 24% — 9pp below the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Republican lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 92.3% | 57.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.7% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 2.3% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 2.0% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(5) | 0.6% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
59.7%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -75.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.6% | 74.7% | — | — | |
| 10.2% | 17.0% | — | — | |
| 2.1% | 3.5% | — | — | |
| 1.4% | 2.4% | — | — | |
| 1.4% | 2.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 1.4% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 40.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA metro area? 310,842 residents across 5 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
24% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 9pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
311K
Share of U.S. population
0.09%
Voting-age population
79.5%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$58,108
Poverty rate
15.1%
College degree
23.9%
Homeownership
74.1%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
45.6 yrs
Age 18–29
13.2%
Age 65+
22.9%
Foreign born
1.6%
Non-English at home
2.5%
English only
97.5%
Turnout in Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
60.6%
+1.3pp
247,240
1988–2024
How competitive is Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA?
Safe RAvg margin: R+56.2 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+39.0
2012
R+45.6
2016
R+56.4
2020
R+54.8
2024
R+57.5
18.4pp
0
R+50.7
Do voters in Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (14/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+57.5 | R+54.5 | 3.0pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 15.2pp
Located In
Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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