Paducah, KY-IL
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 3.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 103K residents — 5 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 84.1% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(14) | 3.1% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 7.7% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.1% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 59.7% | 78.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 7.1% | 9.4% |
| Catholic | 4.3% | 5.7% |
| Black Protestant | 3.4% | 4.5% |
| Other | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Non-religious | 24.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+43.7 |
| 2020 | Trump+40.6 |
| 2016 | Trump+43.8 |
| 2012 | Romney+34.1 |
| 2008 | McCain+25.7 |
| 2004 | Bush+21.6 |
| 2000 | Bush+10.0 |
| 1996 | Clinton+13.2 |
| 1992 | Clinton+13.4 |
Paducah, KY-IL is a metro area that has a population of 102,748. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+43.7. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27.6% | 71.2% | R+43.7 | R+3.1 |
| 2020 | 29.0% | 69.6% | R+40.6 | D+3.2 |
| 2016 | 26.0% | 69.8% | R+43.8 | R+9.7 |
| 2012 | 32.1% | 66.2% | R+34.1 | R+8.4 |
| 2008 | 36.4% | 62.0% | R+25.7 | R+4.1 |
| 2004 | 38.9% | 60.5% | R+21.6 | R+11.6 |
| 2000 | 44.1% | 54.1% | R+10.0 | R+23.2 |
| 1996 | 51.5% | 38.2% | D+13.2 | R+0.2 |
| 1992 | 50.6% | 37.2% | D+13.4 | D+11.0 |
| 1988 | 50.8% | 48.3% | D+2.4 | D+3.7 |
| 1984 | 48.9% | 50.2% | R+1.3 | R+11.3 |
| 1980 | 53.8% | 43.8% | D+10.0 | R+25.0 |
| 1976 | 66.1% | 31.1% | D+35.0 | D+56.4 |
| 1972 | 37.9% | 59.3% | R+21.4 | R+32.6 |
| 1968 | 42.3% | 31.2% | D+11.1 | R+36.5 |
| 1964 | 73.6% | 26.0% | D+47.6 | D+39.3 |
| 1960 | 54.2% | 45.8% | D+8.3 | R+16.6 |
| 1956 | 62.3% | 37.4% | D+25.0 | D+0.2 |
| 1952 | 62.3% | 37.6% | D+24.7 | R+16.6 |
| 1948 | 69.8% | 28.5% | D+41.3 | — |
What defines Paducah, KY-IL?
Paducah, KY-IL voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH
Small-town rural republican 3
Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
Small-town rural republican 3
Wheeling, WV-OH
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Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH
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St. Joseph, MO-KS
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Cumberland, MD-WV
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Cape Girardeau, MO-IL
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Quincy, IL-MO
Small-town rural republican 3
Counties in Paducah, KY-IL
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCracken | 68K | R+34.9 | 10,191 | 21,349 | 31,947 | 63.5% |
| Massac | 14K | R+48.8 | 1,683 | 4,939 | 6,676 | 13.3% |
| Livingston | 9K | R+63.0 | 886 | 4,021 | 4,972 | 9.9% |
| Ballard | 8K | R+64.4 | 697 | 3,331 | 4,088 | 8.1% |
| Carlisle | 5K | R+68.0 | 408 | 2,182 | 2,610 | 5.2% |
5 countiesTotal votes: 50,293
Ask the Historian
Explore Paducah, KY-IL's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 43.7% margin
- College attainment is 25% — 8pp below the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Republican lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Paducah, KY-IL | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 84.1% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 7.7% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(14) | 3.1% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.7% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
75.8%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -77.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.7% | 78.9% | — | — | |
| 7.1% | 9.4% | — | — | |
| 4.3% | 5.7% | — | — | |
| 3.4% | 4.5% | — | — | |
| 1.1% | 1.4% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 0.6% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 24.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Paducah, KY-IL metro area? 102,748 residents across 5 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
25% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
103K
Share of U.S. population
0.03%
Voting-age population
76.6%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$64,056
Poverty rate
15.7%
College degree
24.7%
Homeownership
72.0%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
43.2 yrs
Age 18–29
12.8%
Age 65+
20.9%
Foreign born
1.7%
Non-English at home
2.8%
English only
97.2%
Turnout in Paducah, KY-IL
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
63.9%
-2.4pp
78,740
1988–2024
How competitive is Paducah, KY-IL?
Safe RAvg margin: R+42.7 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+25.7
2012
R+34.1
2016
R+43.8
2020
R+40.6
2024
R+43.7
18.1pp
1
R+37.6
Do voters in Paducah, KY-IL split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (8/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+42.1 | R+55.0 | 12.9pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 16.0pp
Located In
Paducah, KY-IL sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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