Lincoln, NE
Competitive — shifted 3.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 344K residents — 2 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 78.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 8.2% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 3.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 1.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.7% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.9% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 16.4% | 36.7% |
| Catholic | 13.0% | 29.0% |
| Mainline Protestant | 12.8% | 28.5% |
| Other | 2.2% | 4.9% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.7% |
| Black Protestant | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Non-religious | 55.2% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+1.5 |
| 2020 | Biden+4.9 |
| 2016 | Trump+2.3 |
| 2012 | Romney+2.3 |
| 2008 | Obama+3.3 |
| 2004 | Bush+15.3 |
| 2000 | Bush+11.5 |
| 1996 | Dole+2.4 |
| 1992 | Bush+1.0 |
Lincoln, NE is a metro area that has a population of 344,337. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+1.5. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 50.0% | 48.5% | D+1.5 | R+3.4 |
| 2020 | 50.9% | 46.0% | D+4.9 | D+7.2 |
| 2016 | 44.2% | 46.5% | R+2.3 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | 47.7% | 50.0% | R+2.3 | R+5.5 |
| 2008 | 50.7% | 47.4% | D+3.3 | D+18.6 |
| 2004 | 41.5% | 56.9% | R+15.3 | R+3.9 |
| 2000 | 41.1% | 52.5% | R+11.5 | R+9.0 |
| 1996 | 43.8% | 46.2% | R+2.4 | R+1.4 |
| 1992 | 38.7% | 39.7% | R+1.0 | D+0.2 |
| 1988 | 49.1% | 50.3% | R+1.2 | D+19.2 |
| 1984 | 39.5% | 59.8% | R+20.4 | R+4.1 |
| 1980 | 35.2% | 51.5% | R+16.2 | R+1.1 |
| 1976 | 41.2% | 56.3% | R+15.1 | D+9.5 |
| 1972 | 37.7% | 62.3% | R+24.6 | R+7.8 |
| 1968 | 39.1% | 55.9% | R+16.8 | R+35.1 |
| 1964 | 59.2% | 40.8% | D+18.4 | D+43.6 |
| 1960 | 37.4% | 62.6% | R+25.2 | D+4.8 |
| 1956 | 35.0% | 65.0% | R+30.0 | D+5.7 |
| 1952 | 32.1% | 67.9% | R+35.8 | R+23.2 |
| 1948 | 43.7% | 56.3% | R+12.6 | — |
What defines Lincoln, NE?
Lincoln, NE has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (3D, 3R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Lincoln, NE
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- The 2024 election was decided by just 1.5 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2016
- College attainment is 41% — 8pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally
Who Lives Here
| Group | Lincoln, NE | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 78.7% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 8.2% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.9% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.9% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 3.6% | 12.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 1.0% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.7% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -12.2pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.4% | 36.7% | — | — | |
| 13.0% | 29.0% | — | — | |
| 12.8% | 28.5% | — | — | |
| 2.2% | 4.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.7% | — | — |
| 0.3% | 0.6% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 55.2% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Lincoln, NE metro area? 344,337 residents across 2 counties.
Demographics
41% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Lincoln, NE
How competitive is Lincoln, NE?
Do voters in Lincoln, NE split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+1.5 | R+2.1 | 3.6pp |