Bozeman, MT
Competitive — shifted 4.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 124K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 87.5% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 5.4% |
▶Black / African American(6) | 0.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.3% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 0.6% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.8% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 10.5% | 37.1% |
| Catholic | 8.3% | 29.2% |
| Other | 6.2% | 22.0% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 4.1% | 14.3% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.1% | 11.0% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 71.7% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+3.2 |
| 2020 | Biden+7.5 |
| 2016 | Clinton+0.8 |
| 2012 | Romney+5.0 |
| 2008 | Obama+3.4 |
| 2004 | Bush+15.0 |
| 2000 | Bush+27.5 |
| 1996 | Dole+12.3 |
| 1992 | Bush+5.5 |
Bozeman, MT is a metro area that has a population of 124,074. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+3.2. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, dating back to 1892.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 50.0% | 46.8% | D+3.2 | R+4.3 |
| 2020 | 51.8% | 44.3% | D+7.5 | D+6.7 |
| 2016 | 45.1% | 44.2% | D+0.8 | D+5.8 |
| 2012 | 45.8% | 50.8% | R+5.0 | R+8.4 |
| 2008 | 50.1% | 46.8% | D+3.4 | D+18.4 |
| 2004 | 41.2% | 56.2% | R+15.0 | D+12.5 |
| 2000 | 31.2% | 58.8% | R+27.5 | R+15.2 |
| 1996 | 37.7% | 50.1% | R+12.3 | R+6.9 |
| 1992 | 33.1% | 38.6% | R+5.5 | D+10.4 |
| 1988 | 41.1% | 56.9% | R+15.9 | D+15.1 |
| 1984 | 33.8% | 64.8% | R+31.0 | D+1.2 |
| 1980 | 26.5% | 58.6% | R+32.2 | R+4.4 |
| 1976 | 35.6% | 63.4% | R+27.8 | D+6.8 |
| 1972 | 31.7% | 66.3% | R+34.6 | R+4.4 |
| 1968 | 31.9% | 62.1% | R+30.2 | R+30.0 |
| 1964 | 49.8% | 50.0% | R+0.2 | D+29.0 |
| 1960 | 35.3% | 64.5% | R+29.2 | D+5.2 |
| 1956 | 32.8% | 67.2% | R+34.4 | D+9.8 |
| 1952 | 27.7% | 71.9% | R+44.2 | R+35.8 |
| 1948 | 44.6% | 53.1% | R+8.5 | — |
What defines Bozeman, MT?
Bozeman, MT has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (4D, 2R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a predominantly white, college-educated electorate that has shifted sharply toward Democrats in the Trump era.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Bozeman, MT
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallatin | 124K | D+3.2 | 34,938 | 32,695 | 69,897 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- The 2016 election was decided by just 0.8 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2012
- College attainment is 54% — 21pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally
Who Lives Here
| Group | Bozeman, MT | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 87.5% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 5.4% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.8% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.3% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Black / African American(6) | 0.4% | 12.2% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -12.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5% | 37.1% | — | — | |
| 8.3% | 29.2% | — | — | |
| 6.2% | 22.0% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 4.1% | 14.3% | — | — |
| 3.1% | 11.0% | — | — | |
| 0.1% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 71.7% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Bozeman, MT metro area? 124,074 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
54% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 21pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+25 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Bozeman, MT
How competitive is Bozeman, MT?
Do voters in Bozeman, MT split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+3.2 | D+12.1 | 8.9pp |
| Senate vs Governor | D+12.1 | D+3.4 | 8.8pp |
| President vs Governor | D+3.2 | D+3.4 | 0.2pp |