How did McMinnville, TN vote in the 2024 presidential election?

McMinnville, TN voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+56.1. Kamala D Harris received 3,647 votes and Donald Trump received 13,192 out of 17,015 total votes cast, a 6.6-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is McMinnville, TN's political history?

McMinnville, TN has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2004. The largest single-election swing was 82.5 points in 1872.

What are the demographics of McMinnville, TN?

McMinnville, TN has a population of 42,166 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 83.3% non-Hispanic white, 10.0% Hispanic, 2.7% Black. About 14% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $55,487.

Which places are most similar to McMinnville, TN?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to McMinnville, TN are Lawrenceburg, TN, Cambridge, OH, Coshocton, OH. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

McMinnville, TN

Latest: 2024↓ R+6.6 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 6.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 42K residents — 1 counties

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POPULATION
42K
COUNTIES
1
PRES MARGIN
R+56.1
2024
TURNOUT
53.6%
MEDIAN INCOME
$55K

Place Story

What defines McMinnville, TN

Methodology

Reliably Republican since 2004
- Safe R
- 6 straight R wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Biggest swing: D+82.5 in 1872
- 1868 → 1872
Volatile behavior — treat historical margins with caution.
Demographically distinctive: 83% non-Hispanic white (+26pp vs national)
- 83% non-Hispanic white (+26pp vs national)
- 14% college+ (-21pp vs national)
Evangelical edge: 81pp over Catholics
- 4% Catholic / 84% Evangelical
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 36.6pp behind Governor
- Divergence 36.7pp in 2006
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Lawrenceburg, TN

Small-town rural republican 3

R+69.1

Similarity score94%

Cambridge, OH

Small-town rural republican 3

R+52.0

Similarity score94%

Coshocton, OH

Small-town rural republican 3

R+52.2

Similarity score93%

Scottsboro, AL

Small-town rural republican 3

R+71.3

Similarity score93%

Malvern, AR

Small-town rural republican 3

R+52.2

Similarity score93%

Washington Court House, OH

Small-town rural republican 3

R+55.1

Similarity score92%

Portsmouth, OH

Small-town rural republican 3

R+48.0

Similarity score92%

Connersville, IN

Small-town rural republican 3

R+56.3

Similarity score92%

Constituent Geography

Counties in McMinnville, TN

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Warren	42K	R+56.1	3,647	13,192	17,015	100.0%

1 countiesTotal votes: 17,015

Historian Query

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Explore McMinnville, TN's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the McMinnville, TN metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

McMinnville, TNCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 83.3%Hispanic 10.0%Black 2.7%Multiracial 2.5%Native American 0.8%Asian 0.6%

Group	McMinnville, TN	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	83.3%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(8)	10.0%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(3)	2.7%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	2.5%	4.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.8%	0.9%
▶Asian(2)	0.6%	6.0%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2)	0.2%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

49.2%(20.8K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -85.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	41.4%	84.1%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	4.2%	8.6%	—	—
Catholic	1.8%	3.6%	—	—
Other	1.3%	2.7%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.8%	1.6%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.5%	1.0%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	50.8%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the McMinnville, TN metro area? 42,166 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

McMinnville, TN vs National42K residents

14% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 19pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+28 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

42K

local

42KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.01%

local

0.01%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

75.2%

local

75.2%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$55,487

local

$55,487National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

15.7%

local

15.7%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.1%

local

14.1%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

72.4%

local

72.4%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.8 yrs

local

39.8 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.9%

local

13.9%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.9%

local

17.9%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.6%

local

3.6%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

7.3%

local

7.3%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

92.7%

local

92.7%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in McMinnville, TN

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

53.6%

vs Previous

+3.1pp

Voting-Age Pop

31,727

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is McMinnville, TN?

Safe RAvg margin: R+49.9 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+21.2

2012

R+25.0

2016

R+44.1

2020

R+49.5

2024

R+56.1

Elasticity

34.9pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+39.2

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in McMinnville, TN split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (14/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+56.1	R+52.9	3.2pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 15.2pp

Containing Geography

Located In

McMinnville, TN sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Tennessee(State)

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