How did Missoula, MT vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Missoula, MT voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+18.8. Kamala D Harris received 43,592 votes and Donald Trump received 29,355 out of 75,606 total votes cast, a 2.5-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Missoula, MT's political history?

Missoula, MT has 34 presidential elections on record, spanning 1892 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2004. The largest single-election swing was 66.6 points in 1896.

What are the demographics of Missoula, MT?

Missoula, MT has a population of 125,631 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 85.6% non-Hispanic white, 5.0% Hispanic. About 47% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $75,122.

Which places are most similar to Missoula, MT?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Missoula, MT are Burlington-South Burlington, VT, Fort Collins-Loveland, CO, Madison, WI. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Missoula, MT

Latest: 2024↓ R+2.5 vs 2020

Safe Democratic — 126K residents — 2 counties

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Race & ancestry

Group	%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	85.6%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)	5.0%
▶Black / African American(5)	0.4%
▶Asian(6)	1.5%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7)	0.3%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7)	2.0%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1)	0.1%
Multiracial / Other	5.3%

View full demographics →

Religious adherence

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents
Catholic	8.9%	34.3%
Evangelical Protestant	8.4%	32.4%
Other	5.5%	21.1%
LDS (Mormon)	4.2%	16.1%
Mainline Protestant	2.9%	11.3%
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.8%
Non-religious	74.0%	—

View full religion →

Presidential results

Year	Result
2024	Harris+18.8
2020	Biden+21.3
2016	Clinton+13.5
2012	Obama+16.3
2008	Obama+25.4
2004	Kerry+4.2
2000	Bush+10.2
1996	Clinton+12.9
1992	Clinton+17.2

View full election history →

Missoula, MT is a metro area that has a population of 125,631. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+18.8. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, dating back to 1892.

Missoula, MT Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	57.7%	38.8%	D+18.8	R+2.5
2020	59.1%	37.8%	D+21.3	D+7.8
2016	51.1%	37.6%	D+13.5	R+2.8
2012	56.6%	40.3%	D+16.3	R+9.1
2008	61.0%	35.6%	D+25.4	D+21.2
2004	50.7%	46.5%	D+4.2	D+14.4
2000	36.6%	46.8%	R+10.2	R+23.2
1996	49.0%	36.1%	D+12.9	R+4.2
1992	46.8%	29.6%	D+17.2	D+8.0
1988	53.8%	44.7%	D+9.1	D+18.1
1984	44.7%	53.6%	R+9.0	R+0.2
1980	38.0%	46.8%	R+8.8	R+5.5
1976	47.7%	51.1%	R+3.3	D+2.5
1972	45.9%	51.7%	R+5.8	D+0.1
1968	41.8%	47.7%	R+5.8	R+29.9
1964	61.9%	37.9%	D+24.1	D+30.8
1960	46.5%	53.2%	R+6.7	D+14.4
1956	39.4%	60.6%	R+21.1	R+3.4
1952	40.9%	58.6%	R+17.8	R+22.6
1948	50.8%	45.9%	D+4.9	—

Political Identity

What defines Missoula, MT?

It has a predominantly white, college-educated electorate that has shifted sharply toward Democrats in the Trump era.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Burlington-South Burlington, VT

Educated rural democratic

D+41.5

Similarity score95%

Fort Collins-Loveland, CO

Educated rural democratic

D+17.6

Similarity score94%

Madison, WI

Educated rural democratic

D+43.0

Similarity score94%

Kalamazoo-Portage, MI

Educated rural democratic

D+17.7

Similarity score94%

Bellingham, WA

Educated rural democratic

D+24.7

Similarity score94%

Bozeman, MT

Educated rural competitive

D+3.2

Similarity score94%

Boulder, CO

Educated rural democratic

D+55.8

Similarity score93%

Eugene-Springfield, OR

Educated rural democratic

D+22.9

Similarity score93%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Missoula, MT

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Missoula	121K	D+21.4	42,903	27,306	72,773	96.3%
Mineral	5K	R+48.0	689	2,049	2,833	3.7%

2 countiesTotal votes: 75,606

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Missoula, MT's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Missoula, MT metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.

Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
College attainment is 47% — 14pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Missoula, MTCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 85.6%Multiracial 5.3%Hispanic 5.0%Native American 2.0%Asian 1.5%Black 0.4%

Group	Missoula, MT	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	85.6%	57.4%
Multiracial / Other	5.3%	4.0%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)	5.0%	19.3%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7)	2.0%	0.9%
▶Asian(6)	1.5%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(5)	0.4%	12.2%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7)	0.3%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1)	0.1%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

26.0%(32.6K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	8.9%	34.3%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	8.4%	32.4%	—	—
Other	5.5%	21.1%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	4.2%	16.1%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	2.9%	11.3%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.8%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	74.0%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Missoula, MT metro area? 125,631 residents across 2 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Missoula, MT vs National126K residents

47% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 14pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

126K

local

126KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.04%

local

0.04%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

79.2%

local

79.2%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$75,122

local

$75,122National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.3%

local

10.3%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

46.6%

local

46.6%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

59.7%

local

59.7%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.6 yrs

local

37.6 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

20.5%

local

20.5%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.6%

local

17.6%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.8%

local

2.8%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.7%

local

4.7%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

95.3%

local

95.3%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Missoula, MT

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

76.0%

vs Previous

+1.1pp

Voting-Age Pop

99,516

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Missoula, MT?

Safe DAvg margin: D+17.9 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+25.4

2012

D+16.3

2016

D+13.5

2020

D+21.3

2024

D+18.8

Elasticity

11.9pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+19.1

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Missoula, MT split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (27/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	D+18.8	D+31.2	12.4pp
Senate vs Governor	D+31.2	D+19.0	12.2pp
President vs Governor	D+18.8	D+19.0	0.2pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 13.4pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Missoula, MT sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Montana(State)

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