Salem, OR
Latest: 2024
Competitive — 439K residents — 2 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 63.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 26.2% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 1.1% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 1.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(7) | 1.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 19.3% | 46.8% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 14.2% | 34.5% |
| Other | 5.5% | 13.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 3.7% | 9.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 2.0% | 4.8% |
| Black Protestant | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 58.8% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+2.4 |
| 2020 | Biden+0.5 |
| 2016 | Trump+4.6 |
| 2012 | Romney+3.4 |
| 2008 | Obama+1.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+9.8 |
| 2000 | Bush+7.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+1.3 |
| 1992 | Bush+1.1 |
Salem, OR is a metro area that has a population of 438,906. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+2.4. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 47.0% | 49.4% | R+2.4 | R+2.9 |
| 2020 | 48.5% | 48.0% | D+0.5 | D+5.1 |
| 2016 | 41.9% | 46.5% | R+4.6 | R+1.1 |
| 2012 | 46.7% | 50.1% | R+3.4 | R+5.0 |
| 2008 | 49.4% | 47.8% | D+1.6 | D+11.4 |
| 2004 | 44.3% | 54.2% | R+9.8 | R+2.0 |
| 2000 | 43.3% | 51.1% | R+7.8 | R+9.1 |
| 1996 | 44.9% | 43.6% | D+1.3 | D+2.4 |
| 1992 | 37.3% | 38.4% | R+1.1 | D+3.5 |
| 1988 | 46.6% | 51.2% | R+4.6 | D+15.0 |
| 1984 | 40.1% | 59.7% | R+19.6 | R+8.0 |
| 1980 | 37.7% | 49.3% | R+11.5 | R+9.2 |
| 1976 | 46.7% | 49.0% | R+2.3 | D+17.4 |
| 1972 | 37.8% | 57.5% | R+19.8 | R+4.9 |
| 1968 | 40.1% | 55.0% | R+14.9 | R+40.6 |
| 1964 | 62.7% | 36.9% | D+25.7 | D+42.8 |
| 1960 | 41.4% | 58.5% | R+17.1 | D+10.2 |
| 1956 | 36.4% | 63.6% | R+27.3 | D+13.6 |
| 1952 | 29.3% | 70.2% | R+40.9 | R+24.7 |
| 1948 | 40.4% | 56.6% | R+16.2 | — |
What defines Salem, OR?
Salem, OR has flipped between parties in each of the last three elections — a fiercely contested battleground.
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Counties in Salem, OR
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Salem, OR's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2020 election was decided by just 0.5 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Salem, OR | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 63.4% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 26.2% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.9% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.0% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 1.3% | 0.9% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 1.1% | 12.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(7) | 1.0% | 0.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
41.2%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +7.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.3% | 46.8% | — | — | |
| 14.2% | 34.5% | — | — | |
| 5.5% | 13.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 3.7% | 9.1% | — | — |
| 2.0% | 4.8% | — | — | |
| 0.2% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 58.8% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Salem, OR metro area? 438,906 residents across 2 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
27% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
439K
Share of U.S. population
0.13%
Voting-age population
73.9%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$78,954
Poverty rate
12.9%
College degree
27.1%
Homeownership
62.8%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
37.6 yrs
Age 18–29
16.6%
Age 65+
17.2%
Foreign born
12.2%
Non-English at home
22.8%
English only
77.2%
Turnout in Salem, OR
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
63.0%
-2.9pp
324,369
1988–2024
How competitive is Salem, OR?
Tilt RAvg margin: R+2.2 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+1.6
2012
R+3.4
2016
R+4.6
2020
D+0.5
2024
R+2.4
6.2pp
5
R+1.7
Do voters in Salem, OR split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (18/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+4.0 | R+14.6 | 10.7pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 14.7pp
Located In
Salem, OR sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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