Tucson, AZ
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 3.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.1M residents — 1 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 50.5% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 36.4% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 3.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.7% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 2.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.4% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 18.6% | 48.7% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 10.3% | 26.8% |
| Other | 6.2% | 16.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 2.8% | 7.3% |
| Mainline Protestant | 2.3% | 6.1% |
| Black Protestant | 0.6% | 1.6% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 61.8% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+15.1 |
| 2020 | Biden+18.7 |
| 2016 | Clinton+13.6 |
| 2012 | Obama+6.9 |
| 2008 | Obama+6.0 |
| 2004 | Kerry+6.0 |
| 2000 | Gore+8.0 |
| 1996 | Clinton+12.8 |
| 1992 | Clinton+11.2 |
Tucson, AZ is a metro area that has a population of 1,060,490. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+15.1. Akashic Edge tracks 29 presidential elections here, dating back to 1912.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56.8% | 41.7% | D+15.1 | R+3.6 |
| 2020 | 58.6% | 39.9% | D+18.7 | D+5.1 |
| 2016 | 53.3% | 39.7% | D+13.6 | D+6.7 |
| 2012 | 52.5% | 45.6% | D+6.9 | D+0.9 |
| 2008 | 52.2% | 46.2% | D+6.0 | 0.0 |
| 2004 | 52.6% | 46.6% | D+6.0 | R+2.0 |
| 2000 | 51.3% | 43.3% | D+8.0 | R+4.8 |
| 1996 | 52.2% | 39.4% | D+12.8 | D+1.6 |
| 1992 | 45.7% | 34.5% | D+11.2 | D+12.9 |
| 1988 | 48.5% | 50.3% | R+1.7 | D+13.1 |
| 1984 | 42.1% | 56.9% | R+14.8 | D+0.5 |
| 1980 | 34.4% | 49.7% | R+15.3 | R+11.4 |
| 1976 | 45.9% | 49.8% | R+3.9 | D+6.6 |
| 1972 | 34.9% | 45.4% | R+10.5 | R+0.6 |
| 1968 | 40.7% | 50.6% | R+9.9 | R+17.0 |
| 1964 | 53.4% | 46.4% | D+7.1 | D+12.2 |
| 1960 | 47.3% | 52.4% | R+5.1 | D+19.9 |
| 1956 | 37.4% | 62.5% | R+25.1 | R+4.7 |
| 1952 | 39.8% | 60.2% | R+20.4 | R+22.4 |
| 1948 | 49.7% | 47.6% | D+2.0 | — |
What defines Tucson, AZ?
It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
Constituent Counties
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Counties in Tucson, AZ
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pima | 1.1M | D+15.1 | 292,450 | 214,669 | 515,287 | 100.0% |
1 countiesTotal votes: 515,287
Ask the Historian
Explore Tucson, AZ's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Has changed party control 6 times across its presidential election history
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Tucson, AZ | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 50.5% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 36.4% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 3.6% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.4% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.1% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 2.9% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.7% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
38.2%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +17.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.6% | 48.7% | — | — | |
| 10.3% | 26.8% | — | — | |
| 6.2% | 16.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 2.8% | 7.3% | — | — |
| 2.3% | 6.1% | — | — | |
| 0.6% | 1.6% | — | — | |
| 0.2% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 61.8% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Tucson, AZ metro area? 1,060,490 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
1.1M
Share of U.S. population
0.32%
Voting-age population
77.7%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$70,315
Poverty rate
14.3%
College degree
36.8%
Homeownership
65.2%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
39.8 yrs
Age 18–29
18.3%
Age 65+
21.6%
Foreign born
11.8%
Non-English at home
25.7%
English only
74.3%
Turnout in Tucson, AZ
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
62.5%
-0.7pp
823,954
1988–2024
How competitive is Tucson, AZ?
Safe DAvg margin: D+15.8 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+6.0
2012
D+6.9
2016
D+13.6
2020
D+18.7
2024
D+15.1
12.6pp
0
D+12.1
Do voters in Tucson, AZ split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+15.1 | D+20.9 | 5.8pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 22.5pp
Located In
Tucson, AZ sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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