Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 5.8pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 5.0M residents — 2 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 52.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 31.1% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 5.7% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.3% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(9) | 2.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 22.1% | 49.2% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 10.6% | 23.6% |
| Other | 10.0% | 22.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 6.0% | 13.3% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.5% | 3.4% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Black Protestant | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Non-religious | 55.1% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+5.2 |
| 2020 | Biden+0.6 |
| 2016 | Trump+4.1 |
| 2012 | Romney+11.1 |
| 2008 | McCain+10.8 |
| 2004 | Bush+14.6 |
| 2000 | Bush+9.9 |
| 1996 | Dole+1.8 |
| 1992 | Bush+7.7 |
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ is a metro area that has a population of 5,028,754. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+5.2. Akashic Edge tracks 29 presidential elections here, dating back to 1912.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46.7% | 51.9% | R+5.2 | R+5.8 |
| 2020 | 49.5% | 48.9% | D+0.6 | D+4.7 |
| 2016 | 44.2% | 48.3% | R+4.1 | D+7.0 |
| 2012 | 43.4% | 54.5% | R+11.1 | R+0.3 |
| 2008 | 43.8% | 54.6% | R+10.8 | D+3.8 |
| 2004 | 42.2% | 56.9% | R+14.6 | R+4.7 |
| 2000 | 43.1% | 53.0% | R+9.9 | R+8.1 |
| 1996 | 44.9% | 46.7% | R+1.8 | D+5.9 |
| 1992 | 32.9% | 40.7% | R+7.7 | D+22.2 |
| 1988 | 34.4% | 64.3% | R+29.9 | D+13.6 |
| 1984 | 27.8% | 71.3% | R+43.5 | R+4.4 |
| 1980 | 25.3% | 64.4% | R+39.1 | R+13.5 |
| 1976 | 35.3% | 60.9% | R+25.6 | D+15.9 |
| 1972 | 27.4% | 68.9% | R+41.5 | R+15.5 |
| 1968 | 32.2% | 58.1% | R+26.0 | R+19.5 |
| 1964 | 46.8% | 53.2% | R+6.4 | D+10.9 |
| 1960 | 41.3% | 58.6% | R+17.3 | D+7.4 |
| 1956 | 37.6% | 62.3% | R+24.7 | R+4.7 |
| 1952 | 40.0% | 60.0% | R+20.0 | R+26.2 |
| 1948 | 51.9% | 45.7% | D+6.2 | — |
What defines Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ?
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ has flipped between parties in each of the last three elections — a fiercely contested battleground. It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
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Counties in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Explore Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2020 election was decided by just 0.6 points — razor-thin
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 52.7% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 31.1% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 5.7% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.3% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(9) | 2.2% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
44.9%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +21.2pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.1% | 49.2% | — | — | |
| 10.6% | 23.6% | — | — | |
| 10.0% | 22.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 6.0% | 13.3% | — | — |
| 1.5% | 3.4% | — | — | |
| 0.4% | 0.8% | — | — | |
| 0.3% | 0.7% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 55.1% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro area? 5,028,754 residents across 2 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
5.0M
Share of U.S. population
1.50%
Voting-age population
75.9%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$88,527
Poverty rate
11.0%
College degree
35.4%
Homeownership
66.6%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
37.9 yrs
Age 18–29
16.3%
Age 65+
16.8%
Foreign born
14.0%
Non-English at home
25.3%
English only
74.7%
Turnout in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
59.5%
+0.4pp
3,817,195
1988–2024
How competitive is Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ?
Tilt RAvg margin: R+2.9 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+10.8
2012
R+11.1
2016
R+4.1
2020
D+0.6
2024
R+5.2
11.7pp
2
R+6.1
Do voters in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+5.2 | D+3.4 | 8.6pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 21.9pp
Located In
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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