Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 5.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 265K residents — 1 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 53.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 35.2% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 0.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.6% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 1.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 26.4% | 65.4% |
| Other | 6.8% | 16.8% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 5.0% | 12.4% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 3.8% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.2% | 2.9% |
| Black Protestant | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| Non-religious | 59.6% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+54.4 |
| 2020 | Biden+60.3 |
| 2016 | Clinton+56.0 |
| 2012 | Obama+55.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+57.5 |
| 2004 | Kerry+48.1 |
| 2000 | Gore+34.1 |
| 1996 | Clinton+29.6 |
| 1992 | Clinton+36.2 |
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA is a metro area that has a population of 264,926. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+54.4. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 75.3% | 20.9% | D+54.4 | R+5.9 |
| 2020 | 78.9% | 18.6% | D+60.3 | D+4.3 |
| 2016 | 73.3% | 17.3% | D+56.0 | D+0.5 |
| 2012 | 75.4% | 20.0% | D+55.5 | R+2.1 |
| 2008 | 77.3% | 19.8% | D+57.5 | D+9.4 |
| 2004 | 73.0% | 24.9% | D+48.1 | D+14.0 |
| 2000 | 61.5% | 27.3% | D+34.1 | D+4.6 |
| 1996 | 56.5% | 26.9% | D+29.6 | R+6.6 |
| 1992 | 58.1% | 21.9% | D+36.2 | D+11.4 |
| 1988 | 61.5% | 36.8% | D+24.8 | D+16.7 |
| 1984 | 53.3% | 45.2% | D+8.1 | D+13.9 |
| 1980 | 37.7% | 43.5% | R+5.8 | R+13.8 |
| 1976 | 51.1% | 43.1% | D+8.0 | D+11.5 |
| 1972 | 46.4% | 49.9% | R+3.5 | D+6.2 |
| 1968 | 41.0% | 50.8% | R+9.8 | R+27.0 |
| 1964 | 58.5% | 41.3% | D+17.3 | D+36.9 |
| 1960 | 39.9% | 59.6% | R+19.7 | D+7.8 |
| 1956 | 36.2% | 63.6% | R+27.4 | D+7.0 |
| 1952 | 32.2% | 66.6% | R+34.4 | R+13.7 |
| 1948 | 37.0% | 57.7% | R+20.7 | — |
What defines Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA?
It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
Constituent Counties
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Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
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Educated rural democratic
Counties in Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | 265K | D+54.4 | 100,998 | 27,978 | 134,135 | 100.0% |
1 countiesTotal votes: 134,135
Ask the Historian
Explore Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 54.4% margin
- College attainment is 44% — 11pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 53.9% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 35.2% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.9% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.6% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 1.2% | 0.9% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 0.8% | 12.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
40.4%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +48.5pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.4% | 65.4% | — | — | |
| 6.8% | 16.8% | — | — | |
| 5.0% | 12.4% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 3.8% | — | — |
| 1.2% | 2.9% | — | — | |
| 0.5% | 1.3% | — | — | |
| 0.5% | 1.1% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 59.6% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA metro area? 264,926 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
44% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
265K
Share of U.S. population
0.08%
Voting-age population
76.1%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$111,093
Poverty rate
11.6%
College degree
43.9%
Homeownership
59.9%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
39.8 yrs
Age 18–29
20.1%
Age 65+
19.0%
Foreign born
18.0%
Non-English at home
33.6%
English only
66.4%
Turnout in Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
66.6%
-5.3pp
201,504
1988–2024
How competitive is Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA?
Safe DAvg margin: D+56.9 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+57.5
2012
D+55.5
2016
D+56.0
2020
D+60.3
2024
D+54.4
5.9pp
0
D+56.7
Do voters in Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+54.4 | D+52.5 | 2.0pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 17.2pp
Located In
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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