San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
Leans Democratic — 282K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 64.5% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 25.0% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 1.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.6% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 20.4% | 52.5% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 10.8% | 28.0% |
| Other | 5.5% | 14.1% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.9% | 4.8% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.6% | 4.2% |
| Black Protestant | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| Non-religious | 61.3% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+10.9 |
| 2020 | Biden+13.1 |
| 2016 | Clinton+8.0 |
| 2012 | Obama+1.0 |
| 2008 | Obama+5.3 |
| 2004 | Bush+7.2 |
| 2000 | Bush+11.3 |
| 1996 | Dole+6.3 |
| 1992 | Clinton+3.6 |
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA is a metro area that has a population of 281,555. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+10.9. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 53.9% | 43.1% | D+10.9 | R+2.2 |
| 2020 | 55.3% | 42.2% | D+13.1 | D+5.1 |
| 2016 | 48.9% | 40.9% | D+8.0 | D+7.0 |
| 2012 | 48.6% | 47.6% | D+1.0 | R+4.3 |
| 2008 | 51.2% | 45.9% | D+5.3 | D+12.5 |
| 2004 | 45.5% | 52.7% | R+7.2 | D+4.2 |
| 2000 | 40.9% | 52.2% | R+11.3 | R+5.0 |
| 1996 | 40.2% | 46.5% | R+6.3 | R+9.9 |
| 1992 | 38.4% | 34.8% | D+3.6 | D+16.7 |
| 1988 | 42.7% | 55.8% | R+13.1 | D+15.6 |
| 1984 | 35.0% | 63.7% | R+28.7 | R+2.6 |
| 1980 | 29.5% | 55.6% | R+26.1 | R+20.8 |
| 1976 | 45.9% | 51.2% | R+5.3 | D+10.0 |
| 1972 | 40.7% | 56.0% | R+15.3 | R+5.8 |
| 1968 | 41.8% | 51.3% | R+9.5 | R+29.2 |
| 1964 | 59.8% | 40.1% | D+19.8 | D+28.5 |
| 1960 | 45.3% | 54.0% | R+8.7 | D+8.6 |
| 1956 | 41.1% | 58.5% | R+17.4 | D+13.7 |
| 1952 | 34.1% | 65.1% | R+31.0 | R+19.7 |
| 1948 | 42.1% | 53.5% | R+11.3 | — |
What defines San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA?
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Luis Obispo | 282K | D+10.9 | 81,314 | 64,932 | 150,766 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- The 2012 election was decided by just 1.0 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004
Who Lives Here
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 64.5% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 25.0% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.6% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.7% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 1.2% | 12.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +20.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.4% | 52.5% | — | — | |
| 10.8% | 28.0% | — | — | |
| 5.5% | 14.1% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.9% | 4.8% | — | — |
| 1.6% | 4.2% | — | — | |
| 0.4% | 1.0% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 61.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA metro area? 281,555 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
40% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+8 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
How competitive is San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA?
Do voters in San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+10.9 | D+6.1 | 4.7pp |