Warren, PA
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — 38K residents — 1 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 94.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(7) | 1.3% |
▶Black / African American(3) | 0.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.4% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(2) | 0.1% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 0.1% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.1% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Mainline Protestant | 16.7% | 43.4% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 11.1% | 29.0% |
| Catholic | 8.2% | 21.4% |
| Black Protestant | 1.8% | 4.8% |
| Other | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| Non-religious | 61.6% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+39.2 |
| 2020 | Trump+39.6 |
| 2016 | Trump+39.4 |
| 2012 | Romney+17.4 |
| 2008 | McCain+6.2 |
| 2004 | Bush+15.3 |
| 2000 | Bush+10.0 |
| 1996 | Clinton+1.4 |
| 1992 | Clinton+2.1 |
Warren, PA is a metro area that has a population of 37,920. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+39.2. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30.0% | 69.2% | R+39.2 | D+0.3 |
| 2020 | 29.4% | 68.9% | R+39.6 | R+0.2 |
| 2016 | 27.7% | 67.1% | R+39.4 | R+22.0 |
| 2012 | 40.4% | 57.9% | R+17.4 | R+11.3 |
| 2008 | 45.7% | 51.9% | R+6.2 | D+9.2 |
| 2004 | 41.7% | 57.1% | R+15.3 | R+5.3 |
| 2000 | 42.9% | 52.9% | R+10.0 | R+11.4 |
| 1996 | 42.7% | 41.3% | D+1.4 | R+0.7 |
| 1992 | 37.8% | 35.7% | D+2.1 | D+15.9 |
| 1988 | 42.5% | 56.2% | R+13.8 | D+12.9 |
| 1984 | 36.3% | 62.9% | R+26.7 | R+4.1 |
| 1980 | 34.8% | 57.4% | R+22.6 | R+15.8 |
| 1976 | 45.8% | 52.6% | R+6.8 | D+27.1 |
| 1972 | 32.2% | 66.1% | R+33.9 | R+18.1 |
| 1968 | 39.9% | 55.7% | R+15.8 | R+43.6 |
| 1964 | 63.6% | 35.8% | D+27.8 | D+55.8 |
| 1960 | 35.9% | 63.8% | R+28.0 | D+18.2 |
| 1956 | 26.8% | 72.9% | R+46.1 | R+2.1 |
| 1952 | 27.5% | 71.5% | R+44.0 | R+10.7 |
| 1948 | 32.0% | 65.4% | R+33.4 | — |
What defines Warren, PA?
It has a working-class, predominantly white electorate — strong Republican base territory.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Oil City, PA
Small-town rural republican
St. Marys, PA
Small-town rural republican
Marietta, OH
Small-town rural republican 3
Somerset, PA
Small-town rural republican 3
Rice Lake, WI
Small-town rural republican
Meadville, PA
Small-town rural republican 3
Johnstown, PA
Small-town rural republican 3
DuBois, PA
Small-town rural republican 3
Counties in Warren, PA
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren | 38K | R+39.3 | 6,212 | 14,345 | 20,723 | 100.0% |
1 countiesTotal votes: 20,723
Ask the Historian
Explore Warren, PA's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 39.2% margin
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 33.4 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Warren, PA | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 94.2% | 57.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.1% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(7) | 1.3% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(3) | 0.8% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.4% | 6.0% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 0.1% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(2) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
38.4%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -12.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.7% | 43.4% | — | — | |
| 11.1% | 29.0% | — | — | |
| 8.2% | 21.4% | — | — | |
| 1.8% | 4.8% | — | — | |
| 0.5% | 1.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 61.6% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Warren, PA metro area? 37,920 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
20% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 13pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
38K
Share of U.S. population
0.01%
Voting-age population
78.6%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$60,480
Poverty rate
10.8%
College degree
19.9%
Homeownership
79.5%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
47.1 yrs
Age 18–29
11.6%
Age 65+
24.7%
Foreign born
1.2%
Non-English at home
2.9%
English only
97.1%
Turnout in Warren, PA
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
69.6%
+0.3pp
29,793
1988–2024
How competitive is Warren, PA?
Safe RAvg margin: R+39.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+6.2
2012
R+17.4
2016
R+39.4
2020
R+39.6
2024
R+39.2
33.4pp
1
R+28.4
Do voters in Warren, PA split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (64/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+39.2 | R+35.0 | 4.2pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 7.7pp
Located In
Warren, PA sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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