Wilmington, NC
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — 453K residents — 3 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 76.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 7.3% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 10.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 16.3% | 37.8% |
| Catholic | 11.6% | 27.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 8.0% | 18.5% |
| Black Protestant | 3.8% | 8.9% |
| Other | 3.1% | 7.2% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 2.3% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 57.0% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+13.9 |
| 2020 | Trump+11.7 |
| 2016 | Trump+15.4 |
| 2012 | Romney+12.1 |
| 2008 | McCain+8.2 |
| 2004 | Bush+15.3 |
| 2000 | Bush+9.8 |
| 1996 | Dole+5.9 |
| 1992 | Bush+2.0 |
Wilmington, NC is a metro area that has a population of 453,347. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+13.9. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 42.4% | 56.3% | R+13.9 | R+2.2 |
| 2020 | 43.4% | 55.1% | R+11.7 | D+3.7 |
| 2016 | 40.2% | 55.6% | R+15.4 | R+3.3 |
| 2012 | 43.3% | 55.4% | R+12.1 | R+3.9 |
| 2008 | 45.4% | 53.6% | R+8.2 | D+7.1 |
| 2004 | 42.2% | 57.5% | R+15.3 | R+5.4 |
| 2000 | 44.7% | 54.5% | R+9.8 | R+4.0 |
| 1996 | 43.2% | 49.0% | R+5.9 | R+3.9 |
| 1992 | 41.7% | 43.7% | R+2.0 | D+14.6 |
| 1988 | 41.5% | 58.2% | R+16.6 | D+7.1 |
| 1984 | 38.0% | 61.7% | R+23.7 | R+21.2 |
| 1980 | 47.0% | 49.6% | R+2.5 | R+17.6 |
| 1976 | 57.1% | 42.1% | D+15.0 | D+62.6 |
| 1972 | 24.9% | 72.5% | R+47.6 | R+45.7 |
| 1968 | 30.5% | 32.4% | R+1.8 | R+7.7 |
| 1964 | 52.9% | 47.1% | D+5.8 | R+12.5 |
| 1960 | 59.2% | 40.8% | D+18.3 | D+11.7 |
| 1956 | 53.3% | 46.7% | D+6.6 | D+0.1 |
| 1952 | 53.3% | 46.7% | D+6.5 | R+12.3 |
| 1948 | 48.6% | 29.8% | D+18.8 | — |
What defines Wilmington, NC?
It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Traverse City, MI
Small-town rural republican
Pittsburgh, PA
Educated rural competitive 2
Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Port Royal, SC
Small-town rural republican
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
Small-town rural republican
Helena, MT
Small-town rural republican 2
Bend, OR
Educated rural democratic
Roanoke, VA
Small-town rural republican 2
Asheville, NC
Educated rural democratic
Counties in Wilmington, NC
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hanover | 235K | D+0.6 | 68,814 | 67,949 | 138,734 | 48.3% |
| Brunswick | 153K | R+24.8 | 40,557 | 67,658 | 109,378 | 38.1% |
| Pender | 66K | R+34.9 | 12,460 | 26,042 | 38,909 | 13.6% |
3 countiesTotal votes: 287,021
Ask the Historian
Explore Wilmington, NC's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Governor
- Turnout increased by 8.4 percentage points since the previous presidential election
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Wilmington, NC | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 76.7% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 10.2% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 7.3% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.1% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
43.0%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -15.2pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.3% | 37.8% | — | — | |
| 11.6% | 27.1% | — | — | |
| 8.0% | 18.5% | — | — | |
| 3.8% | 8.9% | — | — | |
| 3.1% | 7.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 2.3% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 57.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Wilmington, NC metro area? 453,347 residents across 3 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
40% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+8 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
453K
Share of U.S. population
0.14%
Voting-age population
81.0%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$76,474
Poverty rate
10.9%
College degree
39.6%
Homeownership
72.2%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
45.7 yrs
Age 18–29
14.8%
Age 65+
23.9%
Foreign born
4.9%
Non-English at home
7.0%
English only
93.0%
Turnout in Wilmington, NC
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
78.2%
+8.4pp
367,247
1988–2024
How competitive is Wilmington, NC?
Likely RAvg margin: R+13.7 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+8.2
2012
R+12.1
2016
R+15.4
2020
R+11.7
2024
R+13.9
7.2pp
0
R+12.3
Do voters in Wilmington, NC split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (40/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Governor | R+13.9 | D+11.7 | 25.6pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 11.5pp
Located In
Wilmington, NC sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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