Safe Republican — shifted 3.5pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 29 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
54K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+37.5
TURNOUT
64.8%
#5 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$62K
COLLEGE+
19%
Place Story
Ticket-splitting: President ran 73.0pp ahead of Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 19% college+ (-17pp vs national)
Evangelical edge: 11pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.