How did Payson, AZ vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Payson, AZ voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+37.5. Kamala D Harris received 8,504 votes and Donald Trump received 18,901 out of 27,698 total votes cast, a 3.5-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Payson, AZ's political history?

Payson, AZ has 29 presidential elections on record, spanning 1912 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. The largest single-election swing was 44.9 points in 1920.

What are the demographics of Payson, AZ?

Payson, AZ has a population of 53,795 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 61.4% non-Hispanic white, 18.0% Hispanic. About 19% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $61,986.

Which places are most similar to Payson, AZ?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Payson, AZ are Ruidoso, NM, Pahrump, NV, Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Payson, AZ

Latest: 2024↓ R+3.5 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 3.5pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 54K residents — 1 counties

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POPULATION
54K
COUNTIES
1
PRES MARGIN
R+37.5
2024
TURNOUT
64.8%
MEDIAN INCOME
$62K

Place Story

What defines Payson, AZ

Methodology

Reliably Republican since 2000
- Safe R
- 7 straight R wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Biggest swing: R+44.9 in 1920
- 1916 → 1920
Volatile behavior — treat historical margins with caution.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 73.0pp ahead of Senate
- Divergence 72.9pp in 2000
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 19% college+ (-17pp vs national)
- 19% college+ (-17pp vs national)
Evangelical edge: 11pp over Catholics
- 27% Catholic / 38% Evangelical
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Ruidoso, NM

Small-town rural republican

R+38.5

Similarity score92%

Pahrump, NV

Small-town rural republican

R+42.2

Similarity score92%

Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ

Small-town rural republican

R+55.6

Similarity score91%

Sebring, FL

Small-town rural republican

R+40.8

Similarity score91%

Homosassa Springs, FL

Small-town rural republican

R+45.9

Similarity score90%

Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ

Small-town rural republican

R+33.9

Similarity score88%

Brookings, OR

Small-town rural republican

R+15.9

Similarity score88%

Coos Bay-North Bend, OR

Small-town rural republican

R+19.9

Similarity score86%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Payson, AZ

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Gila	54K	R+37.5	8,504	18,901	27,698	100.0%

1 countiesTotal votes: 27,698

Historian Query

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Explore Payson, AZ's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Payson, AZ metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Payson, AZCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 61.4%Hispanic 18.0%Native American 9.8%Multiracial 9.4%Asian 0.8%Black 0.5%

Group	Payson, AZ	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	61.4%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(10)	18.0%	19.3%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5)	9.8%	0.9%
Multiracial / Other	9.4%	4.0%
▶Asian(3)	0.8%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(4)	0.5%	12.2%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3)	0.1%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1)	0.1%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

32.7%(17.6K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -15.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	12.4%	38.0%	—	—
Other	9.8%	29.9%	—	—
Catholic	9.0%	27.4%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	8.4%	25.6%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	1.6%	4.8%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	67.3%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Payson, AZ metro area? 53,795 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Payson, AZ vs National54K residents

19% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 14pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

54K

local

54KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.02%

local

0.02%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

79.4%

local

79.4%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$61,986

local

$61,986National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.9%

local

16.9%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

18.7%

local

18.7%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

77.5%

local

77.5%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

51.1 yrs

local

51.1 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.0%

local

11.0%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

30.9%

local

30.9%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.6%

local

3.6%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.0%

local

14.0%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

86.0%

local

86.0%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Payson, AZ

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

64.8%

vs Previous

0.0pp

Voting-Age Pop

42,720

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Payson, AZ?

Safe RAvg margin: R+34.5 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+27.7

2012

R+26.7

2016

R+31.9

2020

R+34.1

2024

R+37.5

Elasticity

10.9pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+31.6

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Payson, AZ split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+37.5	R+29.6	7.9pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 21.2pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Payson, AZ sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Arizona(State)

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