Hays County, Texas
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — shifted 5.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 39 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 50.5% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 39.4% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 4.1% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.7% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.1% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 17.0% | 43.6% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 15.2% | 38.9% |
| Other | 3.6% | 9.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.1% | 7.8% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.8% | 4.7% |
| Black Protestant | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 60.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+5.6 |
| 2020 | Biden+10.8 |
| 2016 | Trump+0.8 |
| 2012 | Romney+10.4 |
| 2008 | McCain+2.0 |
| 2004 | Bush+14.4 |
| 2000 | Bush+25.6 |
| 1996 | Dole+4.8 |
| 1992 | Clinton+3.1 |
Hays, Texas is a county that has a population of 268,638. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+5.6. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52.1% | 46.4% | D+5.6 | R+5.2 |
| 2020 | 54.4% | 43.6% | D+10.8 | D+11.7 |
| 2016 | 46.0% | 46.9% | R+0.8 | D+9.6 |
| 2012 | 43.3% | 53.7% | R+10.4 | R+8.3 |
| 2008 | 48.1% | 50.2% | R+2.0 | D+12.4 |
| 2004 | 42.1% | 56.5% | R+14.4 | D+11.1 |
| 2000 | 33.2% | 58.8% | R+25.6 | R+20.8 |
| 1996 | 43.1% | 47.9% | R+4.8 | R+7.8 |
| 1992 | 39.8% | 36.7% | D+3.1 | D+5.3 |
| 1988 | 48.1% | 50.4% | R+2.3 | D+28.0 |
| 1984 | 34.7% | 65.0% | R+30.3 | R+26.5 |
| 1980 | 45.2% | 49.0% | R+3.8 | R+13.8 |
| 1976 | 54.4% | 44.4% | D+10.0 | D+24.1 |
| 1972 | 42.7% | 56.8% | R+14.1 | R+39.2 |
| 1968 | 57.4% | 32.2% | D+25.1 | R+24.3 |
| 1964 | 74.6% | 25.3% | D+49.4 | D+20.3 |
| 1960 | 64.5% | 35.4% | D+29.1 | D+25.4 |
| 1956 | 51.7% | 48.0% | D+3.7 | D+5.2 |
| 1952 | 49.2% | 50.7% | R+1.5 | R+57.9 |
| 1948 | 75.0% | 18.6% | D+56.4 | — |
What defines Hays?
Hays has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (2D, 4R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the urban swing demographic that decides close elections.
County in State Context
Current Texas Polling
Contextual statewide polling for Texas. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary
Jasmine Crockett leads at 47.8%
8 pollsStale
Field Preview
Ask the Historian
Explore this county's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2016 election was decided by just 0.8 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2016
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 21.2 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Located In
Hays sits inside these higher-level geographies.