Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 6.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 2.4M residents — 5 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 48.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 32.2% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 7.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 7.5% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.7% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.6% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 17.7% | 44.1% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 12.8% | 31.8% |
| Other | 4.2% | 10.5% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.8% | 9.4% |
| Black Protestant | 1.5% | 3.8% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 3.0% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 59.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+20.4 |
| 2020 | Biden+26.8 |
| 2016 | Clinton+19.5 |
| 2012 | Obama+7.1 |
| 2008 | Obama+14.1 |
| 2004 | Bush+0.5 |
| 2000 | Bush+14.7 |
| 1996 | Clinton+4.9 |
| 1992 | Clinton+10.0 |
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX is a metro area that has a population of 2,426,592. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+20.4. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 59.3% | 38.9% | D+20.4 | R+6.4 |
| 2020 | 62.4% | 35.6% | D+26.8 | D+7.3 |
| 2016 | 56.1% | 36.7% | D+19.5 | D+12.3 |
| 2012 | 51.9% | 44.8% | D+7.1 | R+7.0 |
| 2008 | 56.0% | 41.9% | D+14.1 | D+14.5 |
| 2004 | 48.9% | 49.3% | R+0.5 | D+14.3 |
| 2000 | 38.0% | 52.7% | R+14.7 | R+19.6 |
| 1996 | 48.5% | 43.6% | D+4.9 | R+5.1 |
| 1992 | 44.1% | 34.1% | D+10.0 | D+4.9 |
| 1988 | 52.1% | 47.0% | D+5.1 | D+23.8 |
| 1984 | 40.5% | 59.2% | R+18.8 | R+17.8 |
| 1980 | 46.2% | 47.1% | R+0.9 | R+8.4 |
| 1976 | 53.0% | 45.5% | D+7.4 | D+22.4 |
| 1972 | 42.3% | 57.2% | R+15.0 | R+26.2 |
| 1968 | 49.8% | 38.6% | D+11.2 | R+31.7 |
| 1964 | 71.4% | 28.5% | D+42.9 | D+25.6 |
| 1960 | 58.5% | 41.2% | D+17.3 | D+17.7 |
| 1956 | 49.7% | 50.1% | R+0.4 | R+3.6 |
| 1952 | 51.6% | 48.3% | D+3.3 | R+51.4 |
| 1948 | 74.4% | 19.8% | D+54.6 | — |
What defines Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX?
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a diverse, highly educated electorate — the core of the modern Democratic coalition.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
Educated rural competitive 2
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Diverse rural democratic
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
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Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Educated rural competitive 2
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
Diverse rural democratic
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Educated rural competitive 2
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
Educated rural competitive 2
Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY
Educated rural competitive 2
Counties in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis | 1.3M | D+39.3 | 398,981 | 170,787 | 581,276 | 54.3% |
| Williamson | 673K | R+2.5 | 147,766 | 155,310 | 308,469 | 28.8% |
| Hays | 269K | D+5.6 | 65,528 | 58,438 | 125,827 | 11.7% |
| Bastrop | 107K | R+18.4 | 15,989 | 23,301 | 39,806 | 3.7% |
| Caldwell | 49K | R+14.4 | 6,618 | 8,880 | 15,693 | 1.5% |
5 countiesTotal votes: 1,071,071
Ask the Historian
Explore Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 20.4% margin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 48.7% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 32.2% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 7.5% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 7.2% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.6% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.7% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
40.1%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +7.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.7% | 44.1% | — | — | |
| 12.8% | 31.8% | — | — | |
| 4.2% | 10.5% | — | — | |
| 3.8% | 9.4% | — | — | |
| 1.5% | 3.8% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 3.0% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 59.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX metro area? 2,426,592 residents across 5 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
51% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 18pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+25 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
2.4M
Share of U.S. population
0.72%
Voting-age population
76.3%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$100,540
Poverty rate
9.8%
College degree
50.7%
Homeownership
58.3%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
36.0 yrs
Age 18–29
17.5%
Age 65+
11.9%
Foreign born
16.3%
Non-English at home
28.4%
English only
71.6%
Turnout in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
57.8%
+0.5pp
1,851,979
1988–2024
How competitive is Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX?
Safe DAvg margin: D+22.2 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+14.1
2012
D+7.1
2016
D+19.5
2020
D+26.8
2024
D+20.4
19.7pp
2
D+17.6
Do voters in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (57/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+20.4 | D+24.5 | 4.1pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 8.9pp
Located In
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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