How did MN-04, Minnesota vote in the 2024 presidential election?

MN-04, Minnesota voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+35.0. The Democratic candidate received 256,949 votes and the Republican candidate received 121,047 out of 388,269 total votes cast, a 1.9-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is MN-04, Minnesota's political history?

MN-04, Minnesota has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 6.3 points in 2020.

What are the demographics of MN-04, Minnesota?

MN-04, Minnesota has a population of 705,537 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 62.4% non-Hispanic white, 7.6% Hispanic, 10.5% Black. About 48% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $89,186.

Minnesota's 4th Congressional District

Minnesota · Latest: 2024↓ R+0.7 vs 2022

Safe Democratic — 25D, 0R in 25 House elections

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POPULATION
706K
HOUSE MARGIN
D+34.7
2024
PRES MARGIN
D+35.0
2024
LEAN
Safe D
COLLEGE+
48%

Place Story

What defines Minnesota's 4th Congressional District

Methodology

Reliably Democratic since 2008
- Safe D
- 5 straight D wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 10.0pp behind House
- Divergence 10.1pp in 2008
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Biggest swing: D+6.3 in 2020
- 2016 → 2020
Demographically distinctive: 48% college+ (+12pp vs national)
- 48% college+ (+12pp vs national)

District in State Context

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Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside MN-04 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

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Historian Query

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Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Minnesota's 4th Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

MN-04Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 62.4%Asian 13.5%Black 10.5%Hispanic 7.6%Multiracial 5.4%Native American 0.5%

Group	MN-04	State	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	62.4%	75.9%	57.4%
▶Asian(6)	13.5%	5.1%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(15)	10.5%	7.0%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	7.6%	6.4%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	5.4%	4.7%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	1.1%	—	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3)	0.5%	0.9%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

MN-04 vs Minnesota vs National706K residents

48% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 15pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

706K

local

706KState 5.7MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.21%

local

0.21%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

74.1%

local

74.1%State 74.8%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$89,186

local

$89,186State $90,564National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.8%

local

10.8%State 9.3%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

47.6%

local

47.6%State 39.4%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

65.2%

local

65.2%State 72.2%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.2 yrs

local

37.2 yrsState 39.0 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.3%

local

16.3%State 15.1%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.1%

local

16.1%State 17.3%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.0%

local

14.0%State 8.7%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

20.8%

local

20.8%State 12.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

79.2%

local

79.2%State 87.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in MN-04

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

74.2%

vs Previous

-3.4pp

Voting-Age Pop

523,124

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is MN-04?

Safe DAvg margin: D+34.2 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+27.1

2012

D+27.5

2016

D+30.6

2020

D+36.9

2024

D+35.0

Elasticity

9.9pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+31.4

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in MN-04 split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyStraight-ticket (81/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs House	D+35.0	D+34.7	0.3pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 4.7pp

Minnesota Comparison Set

Other Minnesota Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

14 sibling districts

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