How did MN-03, Minnesota vote in the 2024 presidential election?

MN-03, Minnesota voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+19.5. The Democratic candidate received 260,092 votes and the Republican candidate received 173,394 out of 445,136 total votes cast, a 0.2-point shift toward Democrats from 2020.

What is MN-03, Minnesota's political history?

MN-03, Minnesota has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 9.9 points in 2020.

What are the demographics of MN-03, Minnesota?

MN-03, Minnesota has a population of 708,294 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 70.1% non-Hispanic white, 5.5% Hispanic, 9.7% Black. About 52% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $109,478.

Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District

Minnesota · Latest: 2024↓ R+2.2 vs 2022

Safe Democratic — flipped 1 time in 25 elections

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POPULATION
708K
HOUSE MARGIN
D+17.0
2024
PRES MARGIN
D+19.5
2024
LEAN
Safe D
COLLEGE+
52%

Place Story

What defines Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District

Methodology

Reliably Democratic since 2008
- Safe D
- 5 straight D wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 23.1pp ahead of House
- Divergence 23.0pp in 2016
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Biggest swing: D+9.9 in 2020
- 2016 → 2020
Demographically distinctive: 52% college+ (+16pp vs national)
- 52% college+ (+16pp vs national)

District in State Context

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Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside MN-03 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

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Historian Query

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Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

MN-03Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 70.1%Black 9.7%Asian 8.5%Multiracial 5.8%Hispanic 5.5%Native American 0.4%

Group	MN-03	State	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	70.1%	75.9%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(14)	9.7%	7.0%	12.2%
▶Asian(6)	8.5%	5.1%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	5.8%	4.7%	4.0%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	5.5%	6.4%	19.3%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	1.4%	—	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.4%	0.9%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

MN-03 vs Minnesota vs National708K residents

52% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 19pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+25 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

708K

local

708KState 5.7MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.21%

local

0.21%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

75.7%

local

75.7%State 74.8%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$109,478

local

$109,478State $90,564National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

6.6%

local

6.6%State 9.3%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

51.8%

local

51.8%State 39.4%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

73.0%

local

73.0%State 72.2%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

40.7 yrs

local

40.7 yrsState 39.0 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.7%

local

11.7%State 15.1%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.7%

local

17.7%State 17.3%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.4%

local

13.4%State 8.7%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.6%

local

16.6%State 12.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

83.4%

local

83.4%State 87.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in MN-03

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

83.0%

vs Previous

-1.7pp

Voting-Age Pop

535,986

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is MN-03?

Safe DAvg margin: D+16.0 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+3.7

2012

D+0.8

2016

D+9.4

2020

D+19.2

2024

D+19.5

Elasticity

18.7pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+10.5

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in MN-03 split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (34/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs House	D+19.5	D+17.0	2.5pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 12.4pp

Minnesota Comparison Set

Other Minnesota Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

14 sibling districts

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