Butte-Bozeman
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 5.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 208K residents — 7 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 88.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 4.8% |
▶Black / African American(7) | 0.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 1.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 12.6% | 40.0% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 9.2% | 29.1% |
| Other | 6.7% | 21.1% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 4.8% | 15.3% |
| Mainline Protestant | 2.9% | 9.0% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 68.4% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+5.7 |
| 2020 | Trump+0.6 |
| 2016 | Trump+5.3 |
| 2012 | Romney+2.3 |
| 2008 | Obama+6.9 |
| 2004 | Bush+11.8 |
| 2000 | Bush+17.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+4.6 |
| 1992 | Clinton+8.6 |
Butte-Bozeman is a media market that has a population of 208,219. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+5.7. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, dating back to 1892.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 45.5% | 51.2% | R+5.7 | R+5.1 |
| 2020 | 47.9% | 48.5% | R+0.6 | D+4.8 |
| 2016 | 42.5% | 47.9% | R+5.3 | R+3.0 |
| 2012 | 47.3% | 49.6% | R+2.3 | R+9.2 |
| 2008 | 51.9% | 45.0% | D+6.9 | D+18.7 |
| 2004 | 42.8% | 54.7% | R+11.8 | D+6.0 |
| 2000 | 36.7% | 54.5% | R+17.8 | R+22.4 |
| 1996 | 45.4% | 40.8% | D+4.6 | R+4.0 |
| 1992 | 40.3% | 31.7% | D+8.6 | D+6.0 |
| 1988 | 50.4% | 47.9% | D+2.6 | D+13.6 |
| 1984 | 43.7% | 54.8% | R+11.1 | D+3.4 |
| 1980 | 36.5% | 51.0% | R+14.5 | R+10.7 |
| 1976 | 47.4% | 51.2% | R+3.8 | D+3.7 |
| 1972 | 44.6% | 52.0% | R+7.5 | R+17.0 |
| 1968 | 51.0% | 41.5% | D+9.5 | R+20.9 |
| 1964 | 64.5% | 34.1% | D+30.4 | D+19.4 |
| 1960 | 55.3% | 44.3% | D+11.0 | D+22.6 |
| 1956 | 44.2% | 55.8% | R+11.6 | R+4.4 |
| 1952 | 46.2% | 53.3% | R+7.1 | R+21.3 |
| 1948 | 54.8% | 40.6% | D+14.2 | — |
What defines Butte-Bozeman?
Butte-Bozeman has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (1D, 5R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a highly educated electorate (44% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Democrats nationwide.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Charlottesville
Educated rural competitive
Mankato
Small-town rural republican 3
Lansing
Educated rural competitive
Madison
Educated rural competitive
Cedar Rapids-Waterloo-Iowa City & Dubuque
Small-town rural republican 3
Missoula
Small-town rural republican 2
Syracuse
Educated rural competitive
Helena
Small-town rural republican 2
Counties in Butte-Bozeman
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallatin | 124K | D+3.2 | 34,938 | 32,695 | 69,897 | 59.8% |
| Silver Bow | 36K | D+7.0 | 9,386 | 8,110 | 18,226 | 15.6% |
| Jefferson | 13K | R+36.5 | 2,516 | 5,544 | 8,291 | 7.1% |
| Beaverhead | 10K | R+43.4 | 1,543 | 4,058 | 5,794 | 5.0% |
| Deer Lodge | 10K | D+1.0 | 2,376 | 2,329 | 4,870 | 4.2% |
| Madison | 9K | R+45.3 | 1,689 | 4,615 | 6,461 | 5.5% |
| Powell | 7K | R+53.5 | 710 | 2,466 | 3,282 | 2.8% |
7 countiesTotal votes: 116,821
Ask the Historian
Explore Butte-Bozeman's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2020 election was decided by just 0.6 points — razor-thin
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2008, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Butte-Bozeman | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 88.3% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 4.8% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 1.2% | 0.9% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.9% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Black / African American(7) | 0.3% | 12.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
31.6%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +6.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.6% | 40.0% | — | — | |
| 9.2% | 29.1% | — | — | |
| 6.7% | 21.1% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 4.8% | 15.3% | — | — |
| 2.9% | 9.0% | — | — | |
| 0.2% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 68.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Butte-Bozeman media market? 208,219 residents across 7 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
44% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
208K
Share of U.S. population
0.06%
Voting-age population
77.4%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$83,008
Poverty rate
10.3%
College degree
44.1%
Homeownership
66.2%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
38.4 yrs
Age 18–29
20.9%
Age 65+
17.3%
Foreign born
3.0%
Non-English at home
4.3%
English only
95.7%
Turnout in Butte-Bozeman
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
72.5%
-1.0pp
161,100
1988–2024
How competitive is Butte-Bozeman?
Tilt RAvg margin: R+3.9 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+6.9
2012
R+2.3
2016
R+5.3
2020
R+0.6
2024
R+5.7
12.6pp
3
R+1.4
Do voters in Butte-Bozeman split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (25/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+5.7 | D+7.0 | 12.7pp |
| Senate vs Governor | D+7.0 | R+4.7 | 11.6pp |
| President vs Governor | R+5.7 | R+4.7 | 1.0pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 13.7pp
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