Madison
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — 1.1M residents — 11 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 80.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 7.1% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 3.9% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 14.9% | 38.5% |
| Mainline Protestant | 10.6% | 27.5% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 9.5% | 24.6% |
| Other | 3.3% | 8.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.6% |
| Black Protestant | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| Non-religious | 61.4% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+28.2 |
| 2020 | Biden+30.2 |
| 2016 | Clinton+27.4 |
| 2012 | Obama+32.4 |
| 2008 | Obama+36.5 |
| 2004 | Kerry+21.0 |
| 2000 | Gore+19.5 |
| 1996 | Clinton+20.8 |
| 1992 | Clinton+16.3 |
Madison is a media market that has a population of 1,050,541. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+28.2. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 63.3% | 35.1% | D+28.2 | R+2.0 |
| 2020 | 64.3% | 34.0% | D+30.2 | D+2.8 |
| 2016 | 60.4% | 33.0% | D+27.4 | R+5.0 |
| 2012 | 65.5% | 33.1% | D+32.4 | R+4.1 |
| 2008 | 67.5% | 31.0% | D+36.5 | D+15.6 |
| 2004 | 60.0% | 39.0% | D+21.0 | D+1.5 |
| 2000 | 57.1% | 37.7% | D+19.5 | R+1.3 |
| 1996 | 53.8% | 33.0% | D+20.8 | D+4.5 |
| 1992 | 48.1% | 31.8% | D+16.3 | D+7.5 |
| 1988 | 54.0% | 45.2% | D+8.8 | D+12.1 |
| 1984 | 48.0% | 51.3% | R+3.3 | R+5.2 |
| 1980 | 45.2% | 43.3% | D+1.9 | R+2.1 |
| 1976 | 50.3% | 46.3% | D+4.0 | D+7.4 |
| 1972 | 47.6% | 51.0% | R+3.4 | R+1.9 |
| 1968 | 46.2% | 47.7% | R+1.5 | R+27.7 |
| 1964 | 63.0% | 36.8% | D+26.2 | D+39.0 |
| 1960 | 43.5% | 56.3% | R+12.8 | D+9.6 |
| 1956 | 38.6% | 60.9% | R+22.4 | D+3.7 |
| 1952 | 36.9% | 62.9% | R+26.1 | R+29.1 |
| 1948 | 50.4% | 47.4% | D+3.0 | — |
What defines Madison?
It has a highly educated electorate (42% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Democrats nationwide.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Charlottesville
Educated rural competitive
Syracuse
Educated rural competitive
Milwaukee
Educated rural competitive
Rochester, NY
Educated rural competitive
Lansing
Educated rural competitive
Portland, OR
Educated rural competitive
Seattle-Tacoma
Educated rural democratic
Cedar Rapids-Waterloo-Iowa City & Dubuque
Small-town rural republican 3
Counties in Madison
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane | 573K | D+51.5 | 273,995 | 85,454 | 365,929 | 57.8% |
| Rock | 164K | D+7.3 | 46,642 | 40,218 | 88,310 | 14.0% |
| Sauk | 66K | R+1.7 | 18,172 | 18,798 | 37,584 | 5.9% |
| Columbia | 58K | R+4.6 | 16,388 | 17,988 | 34,914 | 5.5% |
| Grant | 52K | R+18.1 | 10,966 | 15,922 | 27,306 | 4.3% |
| Green | 37K | D+0.3 | 10,903 | 10,843 | 22,076 | 3.5% |
| Juneau | 27K | R+32.1 | 4,854 | 9,525 | 14,553 | 2.3% |
| Iowa | 24K | D+7.6 | 7,750 | 6,631 | 14,677 | 2.3% |
| Richland | 17K | R+13.1 | 3,985 | 5,207 | 9,323 | 1.5% |
| Lafayette | 17K | R+20.2 | 3,469 | 5,256 | 8,832 | 1.4% |
| Marquette | 16K | R+29.6 | 3,252 | 6,041 | 9,427 | 1.5% |
11 countiesTotal votes: 632,931
Ask the Historian
Explore Madison's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 28.2% margin
- College attainment is 42% — 9pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Madison | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 80.7% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 7.1% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% | 4.0% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 3.9% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.7% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
38.6%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +9.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.9% | 38.5% | — | — | |
| 10.6% | 27.5% | — | — | |
| 9.5% | 24.6% | — | — | |
| 3.3% | 8.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.6% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.6% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 61.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Madison media market? 1,050,541 residents across 11 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
42% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 9pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
1.1M
Share of U.S. population
0.31%
Voting-age population
76.7%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$83,962
Poverty rate
10.2%
College degree
41.6%
Homeownership
64.4%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
38.5 yrs
Age 18–29
18.3%
Age 65+
17.1%
Foreign born
6.4%
Non-English at home
9.2%
English only
90.8%
Turnout in Madison
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
78.5%
+3.9pp
806,254
1988–2024
How competitive is Madison?
Safe DAvg margin: D+28.6 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+36.5
2012
D+32.4
2016
D+27.4
2020
D+30.2
2024
D+28.2
9.1pp
0
D+31.0
Do voters in Madison split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (58/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+28.2 | D+30.1 | 1.9pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 8.7pp
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