Missoula
Leans Republican — shifted 4.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 332K residents — 7 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 85.6% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(15) | 4.3% |
▶Black / African American(6) | 0.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(11) | 3.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.4% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 13.5% | 46.3% |
| Catholic | 6.6% | 22.5% |
| Other | 6.0% | 20.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 4.4% | 15.0% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.0% | 10.2% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 70.8% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+14.3 |
| 2020 | Trump+10.3 |
| 2016 | Trump+15.4 |
| 2012 | Romney+10.9 |
| 2008 | McCain+0.1 |
| 2004 | Bush+18.4 |
| 2000 | Bush+26.8 |
| 1996 | Dole+3.9 |
| 1992 | Clinton+5.1 |
Missoula is a media market that has a population of 332,361. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+14.3. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, dating back to 1892.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 41.3% | 55.6% | R+14.3 | R+4.0 |
| 2020 | 43.5% | 53.8% | R+10.3 | D+5.0 |
| 2016 | 37.8% | 53.1% | R+15.4 | R+4.4 |
| 2012 | 42.9% | 53.8% | R+10.9 | R+10.8 |
| 2008 | 47.9% | 48.0% | R+0.1 | D+18.2 |
| 2004 | 39.4% | 57.8% | R+18.4 | D+8.4 |
| 2000 | 30.5% | 57.3% | R+26.8 | R+22.8 |
| 1996 | 39.9% | 43.8% | R+3.9 | R+9.0 |
| 1992 | 38.4% | 33.3% | D+5.1 | D+10.4 |
| 1988 | 46.4% | 51.7% | R+5.3 | D+16.6 |
| 1984 | 38.2% | 60.1% | R+21.9 | D+1.3 |
| 1980 | 32.4% | 55.6% | R+23.2 | R+15.0 |
| 1976 | 44.9% | 53.1% | R+8.2 | D+9.4 |
| 1972 | 38.9% | 56.5% | R+17.6 | R+5.8 |
| 1968 | 38.7% | 50.4% | R+11.7 | R+29.1 |
| 1964 | 58.6% | 41.2% | D+17.4 | D+25.2 |
| 1960 | 46.0% | 53.7% | R+7.8 | D+10.6 |
| 1956 | 40.8% | 59.2% | R+18.3 | D+3.4 |
| 1952 | 38.7% | 60.5% | R+21.7 | R+24.0 |
| 1948 | 49.2% | 46.9% | D+2.3 | — |
What defines Missoula?
Missoula voted solidly Republican in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Counties in Missoula
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missoula | 121K | D+21.4 | 42,903 | 27,306 | 72,773 | 37.2% |
| Flathead | 111K | R+33.8 | 20,062 | 41,390 | 63,140 | 32.2% |
| Ravalli | 47K | R+40.6 | 8,485 | 20,617 | 29,904 | 15.3% |
| Lake | 33K | R+19.9 | 6,510 | 9,880 | 16,910 | 8.6% |
| Sanders | 13K | R+55.1 | 1,705 | 6,150 | 8,069 | 4.1% |
| Mineral | 5K | R+48.0 | 689 | 2,049 | 2,833 | 1.4% |
| Granite | 3K | R+44.0 | 579 | 1,537 | 2,176 | 1.1% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- The 2008 election was decided by just 0.1 points — razor-thin
Who Lives Here
| Group | Missoula | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 85.6% | 57.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.4% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(15) | 4.3% | 19.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(11) | 3.3% | 0.9% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.1% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(6) | 0.3% | 12.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -28.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5% | 46.3% | — | — | |
| 6.6% | 22.5% | — | — | |
| 6.0% | 20.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 4.4% | 15.0% | — | — |
| 3.0% | 10.2% | — | — | |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 70.8% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Missoula media market? 332,361 residents across 7 counties.
Demographics
38% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 5pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+8 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Missoula
How competitive is Missoula?
Do voters in Missoula split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+2.5 | R+14.4 | 11.9pp |
| President vs Senate | R+14.3 | R+2.5 | 11.8pp |
| President vs Governor | R+14.3 | R+14.4 | 0.1pp |