How did Bakersfield-Delano, CA vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Bakersfield-Delano, CA voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+21.1. Kamala D Harris received 108,241 votes and Donald Trump received 167,879 out of 283,246 total votes cast, a 10.9-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Bakersfield-Delano, CA's political history?

Bakersfield-Delano, CA has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968. The largest single-election swing was 70.7 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Bakersfield-Delano, CA?

Bakersfield-Delano, CA has a population of 915,075 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 29.6% non-Hispanic white, 56.5% Hispanic, 5.1% Black. About 19% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $70,210.

Which places are most similar to Bakersfield-Delano, CA?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Bakersfield-Delano, CA are Visalia, CA, Fresno, CA, Hanford-Corcoran, CA. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Bakersfield-Delano, CA

Latest: 2024↓ R+10.9 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 10.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 915K residents — 1 counties

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Race & ancestry

Group	%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	29.6%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	56.5%
▶Black / African American(10)	5.1%
▶Asian(6)	5.3%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8)	0.8%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5)	1.3%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5)	0.2%
Multiracial / Other	2.1%

View full demographics →

Religious adherence

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents
Catholic	25.8%	57.1%
Evangelical Protestant	13.0%	28.7%
Other	4.8%	10.6%
LDS (Mormon)	2.4%	5.2%
Black Protestant	1.0%	2.3%
Mainline Protestant	0.5%	1.1%
Orthodox Christian	0.1%	0.2%
Non-religious	54.7%	—

View full religion →

Presidential results

Year	Result
2024	Trump+21.1
2020	Trump+10.2
2016	Trump+12.7
2012	Romney+16.7
2008	McCain+17.7
2004	Bush+34.0
2000	Bush+24.5
1996	Dole+17.2
1992	Bush+11.3

View full election history →

Bakersfield-Delano, CA is a metro area that has a population of 915,075. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+21.1. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

Bakersfield-Delano, CA Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	38.2%	59.3%	R+21.1	R+10.9
2020	43.7%	53.9%	R+10.2	D+2.5
2016	40.4%	53.1%	R+12.7	D+4.1
2012	40.3%	57.0%	R+16.7	D+1.0
2008	40.0%	57.7%	R+17.7	D+16.3
2004	32.5%	66.5%	R+34.0	R+9.5
2000	36.2%	60.7%	R+24.5	R+7.3
1996	36.6%	53.8%	R+17.2	R+5.9
1992	33.8%	45.1%	R+11.3	D+12.8
1988	37.4%	61.5%	R+24.1	D+6.9
1984	34.0%	65.0%	R+31.0	R+5.0
1980	33.7%	59.6%	R+26.0	R+19.3
1976	45.6%	52.3%	R+6.7	D+18.2
1972	35.2%	60.1%	R+25.0	R+20.9
1968	42.5%	46.6%	R+4.1	R+21.6
1964	58.7%	41.2%	D+17.5	D+18.8
1960	49.1%	50.4%	R+1.3	D+1.7
1956	48.3%	51.3%	R+3.0	D+7.4
1952	44.4%	54.8%	R+10.4	R+24.9
1948	56.2%	41.6%	D+14.6	—

Political Identity

What defines Bakersfield-Delano, CA?

It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Visalia, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+20.9

Similarity score99%

Fresno, CA

Diverse rural democratic

Diverse rural democratic

R+4.4

Similarity score97%

Modesto, CA

Diverse rural democratic

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

Diverse rural democratic

Constituent Geography

Counties in Bakersfield-Delano, CA

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Kern	915K	R+21.1	108,241	167,879	283,246	100.0%

1 countiesTotal votes: 283,246

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Bakersfield-Delano, CA's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Bakersfield-Delano, CA metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.

Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 21.1% margin
Swung 10.9 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Bakersfield-Delano, CACensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

Hispanic 56.5%White (Non-Hispanic) 29.6%Asian 5.3%Black 5.1%Multiracial 2.1%Native American 1.3%

Group	Local	National
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	56.5%	19.3%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	29.6%	57.4%
▶Asian(6)	5.3%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(10)	5.1%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	2.1%	4.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5)	1.3%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8)	0.8%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5)	0.2%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

45.3%(414.3K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +23.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	25.8%	57.1%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	13.0%	28.7%	—	—
Other	4.8%	10.6%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	2.4%	5.2%	—	—
Black Protestant	1.0%	2.3%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	0.5%	1.1%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.1%	0.2%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	54.7%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Bakersfield-Delano, CA metro area? 915,075 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Bakersfield-Delano, CA vs National915K residents

19% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 14pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

915K

local

915KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.27%

local

0.27%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

68.7%

local

68.7%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$70,210

local

$70,210National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

19.1%

local

19.1%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

18.8%

local

18.8%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

60.1%

local

60.1%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

32.7 yrs

local

32.7 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.3%

local

17.3%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.9%

local

11.9%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

20.2%

local

20.2%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

45.7%

local

45.7%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

54.3%

local

54.3%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Bakersfield-Delano, CA

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

45.1%

vs Previous

-3.5pp

Voting-Age Pop

628,295

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Bakersfield-Delano, CA?

Likely RAvg margin: R+14.6 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+17.7

2012

R+16.7

2016

R+12.7

2020

R+10.2

2024

R+21.1

Elasticity

10.9pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+15.7

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Bakersfield-Delano, CA split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+21.1	R+22.1	1.0pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 35.1pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Bakersfield-Delano, CA sits inside these higher-level geographies.

California(State)

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