Bay City, MI
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 3.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 103K residents — 1 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 88.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(7) | 5.9% |
▶Black / African American(5) | 1.2% |
▶Asian(5) | 0.5% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3) | 0.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 20.1% | 50.1% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 15.2% | 37.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.4% | 8.5% |
| Other | 0.9% | 2.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| Black Protestant | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| Non-religious | 60.0% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+14.7 |
| 2020 | Trump+11.6 |
| 2016 | Trump+12.6 |
| 2012 | Obama+5.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+15.3 |
| 2004 | Kerry+9.8 |
| 2000 | Gore+11.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+23.8 |
| 1992 | Clinton+18.6 |
Bay City, MI is a metro area that has a population of 103,008. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+14.7. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 42.0% | 56.7% | R+14.7 | R+3.1 |
| 2020 | 43.4% | 55.0% | R+11.6 | D+1.0 |
| 2016 | 40.6% | 53.2% | R+12.6 | R+18.1 |
| 2012 | 52.0% | 46.5% | D+5.5 | R+9.7 |
| 2008 | 56.6% | 41.3% | D+15.3 | D+5.5 |
| 2004 | 54.4% | 44.6% | D+9.8 | R+2.0 |
| 2000 | 54.7% | 42.9% | D+11.8 | R+12.0 |
| 1996 | 56.1% | 32.3% | D+23.8 | D+5.2 |
| 1992 | 48.7% | 30.1% | D+18.6 | D+3.3 |
| 1988 | 57.4% | 42.1% | D+15.3 | D+22.6 |
| 1984 | 46.1% | 53.4% | R+7.3 | R+5.9 |
| 1980 | 44.9% | 46.4% | R+1.5 | R+7.1 |
| 1976 | 52.2% | 46.6% | D+5.6 | D+8.6 |
| 1972 | 47.1% | 50.1% | R+3.0 | R+9.2 |
| 1968 | 50.3% | 44.1% | D+6.2 | R+36.6 |
| 1964 | 71.3% | 28.5% | D+42.8 | D+38.1 |
| 1960 | 52.3% | 47.5% | D+4.7 | D+25.8 |
| 1956 | 39.3% | 60.4% | R+21.1 | R+3.7 |
| 1952 | 41.0% | 58.4% | R+17.4 | R+21.0 |
| 1948 | 51.3% | 47.6% | D+3.7 | — |
What defines Bay City, MI?
Bay City, MI has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (3D, 3R) — a genuine swing geography.
Constituent Counties
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Counties in Bay City, MI
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bay | 103K | R+14.7 | 25,767 | 34,792 | 61,338 | 100.0% |
1 countiesTotal votes: 61,338
Ask the Historian
Explore Bay City, MI's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 30.0 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
- College attainment is 22% — 11pp below the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Republican lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Bay City, MI | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 88.2% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(7) | 5.9% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.9% | 4.0% |
▶Black / African American(5) | 1.2% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(5) | 0.5% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
40.0%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +7.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.1% | 50.1% | — | — | |
| 15.2% | 37.9% | — | — | |
| 3.4% | 8.5% | — | — | |
| 0.9% | 2.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.3% | — | — |
| 0.5% | 1.2% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 60.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Bay City, MI metro area? 103,008 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
22% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
103K
Share of U.S. population
0.03%
Voting-age population
79.4%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$61,763
Poverty rate
13.3%
College degree
22.1%
Homeownership
77.0%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
43.9 yrs
Age 18–29
13.6%
Age 65+
21.9%
Foreign born
1.3%
Non-English at home
2.3%
English only
97.7%
Turnout in Bay City, MI
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
75.0%
+1.3pp
81,749
1988–2024
How competitive is Bay City, MI?
Likely RAvg margin: R+12.9 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+15.3
2012
D+5.5
2016
R+12.6
2020
R+11.6
2024
R+14.7
30.0pp
1
R+3.6
Do voters in Bay City, MI split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (31/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+14.7 | R+9.7 | 5.0pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 12.8pp
Located In
Bay City, MI sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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