Cleveland, OH
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — shifted 3.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 2.2M residents — 6 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 68.1% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 6.8% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 18.5% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.4% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.0% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 25.6% | 46.5% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 15.2% | 27.6% |
| Mainline Protestant | 5.8% | 10.5% |
| Other | 4.3% | 7.8% |
| Black Protestant | 3.4% | 6.2% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Non-religious | 44.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+9.5 |
| 2020 | Biden+12.8 |
| 2016 | Clinton+14.4 |
| 2012 | Obama+23.9 |
| 2008 | Obama+24.6 |
| 2004 | Kerry+19.9 |
| 2000 | Gore+16.6 |
| 1996 | Clinton+22.0 |
| 1992 | Clinton+15.4 |
Cleveland, OH is a metro area that has a population of 2,171,526. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+9.5. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54.3% | 44.8% | D+9.5 | R+3.3 |
| 2020 | 55.8% | 43.0% | D+12.8 | R+1.5 |
| 2016 | 54.1% | 39.7% | D+14.4 | R+9.5 |
| 2012 | 61.2% | 37.4% | D+23.9 | R+0.8 |
| 2008 | 61.5% | 36.9% | D+24.6 | D+4.8 |
| 2004 | 59.7% | 39.8% | D+19.9 | D+3.3 |
| 2000 | 56.3% | 39.7% | D+16.6 | R+5.4 |
| 1996 | 55.1% | 33.1% | D+22.0 | D+6.6 |
| 1992 | 47.1% | 31.7% | D+15.4 | D+6.2 |
| 1988 | 54.1% | 45.0% | D+9.2 | D+6.4 |
| 1984 | 50.9% | 48.1% | D+2.7 | D+1.4 |
| 1980 | 46.3% | 44.9% | D+1.3 | R+10.6 |
| 1976 | 54.5% | 42.6% | D+12.0 | D+19.3 |
| 1972 | 45.2% | 52.6% | R+7.4 | R+20.9 |
| 1968 | 51.3% | 37.8% | D+13.5 | R+25.6 |
| 1964 | 69.6% | 30.4% | D+39.1 | D+25.2 |
| 1960 | 57.0% | 43.0% | D+13.9 | D+25.7 |
| 1956 | 44.1% | 55.9% | R+11.7 | R+6.6 |
| 1952 | 47.5% | 52.5% | R+5.1 | R+10.2 |
| 1948 | 51.0% | 45.9% | D+5.1 | — |
What defines Cleveland, OH?
Cleveland, OH has been trending Republican — 14pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Rochester, NY
Educated rural competitive 2
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
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Toledo, OH
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Richmond, VA
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Akron, OH
Small-town rural republican 2
Columbus, OH
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Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
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Pittsburgh, PA
Educated rural competitive 2
Counties in Cleveland, OH
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuyahoga | 1.2M | D+31.4 | 376,384 | 195,164 | 576,520 | 53.9% |
| Lorain | 317K | R+5.7 | 74,207 | 83,297 | 159,007 | 14.9% |
| Lake | 232K | R+14.3 | 54,484 | 72,924 | 128,579 | 12.0% |
| Medina | 184K | R+24.8 | 39,771 | 66,308 | 107,045 | 10.0% |
| Ashtabula | 97K | R+28.4 | 15,345 | 27,656 | 43,374 | 4.1% |
| Geauga | 95K | R+24.1 | 20,604 | 33,844 | 54,894 | 5.1% |
6 countiesTotal votes: 1,069,419
Ask the Historian
Explore Cleveland, OH's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Shifted 14.3 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
- Margins have been narrowing — from 14.4pp to 9.5pp over the last 3 presidential elections
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Cleveland, OH | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 68.1% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 18.5% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 6.8% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.0% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.4% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
55.1%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +14.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.6% | 46.5% | — | — | |
| 15.2% | 27.6% | — | — | |
| 5.8% | 10.5% | — | — | |
| 4.3% | 7.8% | — | — | |
| 3.4% | 6.2% | — | — | |
| 0.8% | 1.4% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.4% | 0.8% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 44.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Cleveland, OH metro area? 2,171,526 residents across 6 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
2.2M
Share of U.S. population
0.65%
Voting-age population
77.3%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$71,249
Poverty rate
13.4%
College degree
34.1%
Homeownership
66.5%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
41.6 yrs
Age 18–29
14.5%
Age 65+
20.0%
Foreign born
5.9%
Non-English at home
10.3%
English only
89.7%
Turnout in Cleveland, OH
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
63.7%
-3.0pp
1,677,569
1988–2024
How competitive is Cleveland, OH?
Likely DAvg margin: D+12.2 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+24.6
2012
D+23.9
2016
D+14.4
2020
D+12.8
2024
D+9.5
15.1pp
0
D+17.0
Do voters in Cleveland, OH split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (9/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+9.5 | D+17.4 | 7.9pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 15.9pp
Located In
Cleveland, OH sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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