Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — shifted 6.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 4.4M residents — 6 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 63.5% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 5.3% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 21.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 4.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 18.7% | 42.5% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 9.1% | 20.8% |
| Other | 6.9% | 15.7% |
| Black Protestant | 5.0% | 11.5% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.4% | 7.6% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.8% | 1.9% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Non-religious | 56.1% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+7.1 |
| 2020 | Biden+13.5 |
| 2016 | Clinton+10.6 |
| 2012 | Obama+19.9 |
| 2008 | Obama+25.5 |
| 2004 | Kerry+14.1 |
| 2000 | Gore+16.2 |
| 1996 | Clinton+22.4 |
| 1992 | Clinton+11.8 |
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI is a metro area that has a population of 4,376,828. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+7.1. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52.4% | 45.2% | D+7.1 | R+6.4 |
| 2020 | 56.1% | 42.6% | D+13.5 | D+2.9 |
| 2016 | 52.9% | 42.3% | D+10.6 | R+9.3 |
| 2012 | 59.4% | 39.4% | D+19.9 | R+5.5 |
| 2008 | 61.9% | 36.4% | D+25.5 | D+11.3 |
| 2004 | 56.6% | 42.5% | D+14.1 | R+2.1 |
| 2000 | 56.9% | 40.7% | D+16.2 | R+6.3 |
| 1996 | 56.8% | 34.4% | D+22.4 | D+10.6 |
| 1992 | 47.5% | 35.7% | D+11.8 | D+14.8 |
| 1988 | 48.1% | 51.0% | R+3.0 | D+7.1 |
| 1984 | 44.7% | 54.8% | R+10.0 | R+13.1 |
| 1980 | 47.8% | 44.7% | D+3.1 | R+2.6 |
| 1976 | 51.9% | 46.3% | D+5.6 | D+13.2 |
| 1972 | 45.3% | 52.8% | R+7.6 | R+32.9 |
| 1968 | 57.1% | 31.8% | D+25.3 | R+19.7 |
| 1964 | 72.4% | 27.4% | D+45.1 | D+23.1 |
| 1960 | 60.8% | 38.8% | D+22.0 | D+15.4 |
| 1956 | 53.2% | 46.6% | D+6.6 | R+0.1 |
| 1952 | 53.1% | 46.4% | D+6.7 | R+7.0 |
| 1948 | 55.0% | 41.3% | D+13.7 | — |
What defines Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI?
It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
Educated rural competitive 2
Cleveland, OH
Educated rural competitive 2
Rochester, NY
Educated rural competitive 2
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
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Columbus, OH
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Richmond, VA
Educated rural competitive 2
Jacksonville, FL
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Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
Educated rural competitive 2
Counties in Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne | 1.8M | D+29.0 | 537,032 | 288,860 | 856,690 | 35.4% |
| Oakland | 1.3M | D+10.6 | 419,519 | 337,791 | 772,145 | 31.9% |
| Macomb | 880K | R+13.7 | 214,977 | 284,660 | 509,152 | 21.0% |
| Livingston | 196K | R+23.9 | 49,503 | 81,217 | 132,448 | 5.5% |
| St. Clair | 160K | R+34.6 | 30,844 | 64,277 | 96,524 | 4.0% |
| Lapeer | 89K | R+39.8 | 16,338 | 38,398 | 55,439 | 2.3% |
6 countiesTotal votes: 2,422,398
Ask the Historian
Explore Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Swung 6.4 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 63.5% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 21.4% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 5.3% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.1% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 4.4% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
43.9%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +17.2pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.7% | 42.5% | — | — | |
| 9.1% | 20.8% | — | — | |
| 6.9% | 15.7% | — | — | |
| 5.0% | 11.5% | — | — | |
| 3.4% | 7.6% | — | — | |
| 0.8% | 1.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 0.8% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 56.1% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI metro area? 4,376,828 residents across 6 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
4.4M
Share of U.S. population
1.31%
Voting-age population
77.3%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$77,787
Poverty rate
13.6%
College degree
34.6%
Homeownership
71.2%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
40.2 yrs
Age 18–29
14.7%
Age 65+
17.8%
Foreign born
10.7%
Non-English at home
14.8%
English only
85.2%
Turnout in Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
71.6%
+0.4pp
3,384,782
1988–2024
How competitive is Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI?
Likely DAvg margin: D+10.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+25.5
2012
D+19.9
2016
D+10.6
2020
D+13.5
2024
D+7.1
18.3pp
0
D+15.3
Do voters in Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (60/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+7.1 | D+9.8 | 2.6pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 8.5pp
Located In
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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