Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — 602K residents — 4 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 53.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 13.6% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 23.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.8% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.6% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 17.7% | 39.5% |
| Mainline Protestant | 9.0% | 20.1% |
| Catholic | 8.8% | 19.7% |
| Other | 4.7% | 10.4% |
| Black Protestant | 4.3% | 9.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 2.0% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Non-religious | 55.1% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+45.9 |
| 2020 | Biden+46.7 |
| 2016 | Clinton+45.3 |
| 2012 | Obama+39.4 |
| 2008 | Obama+40.4 |
| 2004 | Kerry+27.6 |
| 2000 | Gore+21.2 |
| 1996 | Clinton+23.2 |
| 1992 | Clinton+24.0 |
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC is a metro area that has a population of 601,724. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+45.9. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 72.1% | 26.1% | D+45.9 | R+0.7 |
| 2020 | 72.6% | 25.9% | D+46.7 | D+1.4 |
| 2016 | 70.5% | 25.2% | D+45.3 | D+5.9 |
| 2012 | 69.0% | 29.7% | D+39.4 | R+1.0 |
| 2008 | 69.7% | 29.4% | D+40.4 | D+12.8 |
| 2004 | 63.5% | 35.9% | D+27.6 | D+6.4 |
| 2000 | 60.2% | 39.0% | D+21.2 | R+2.1 |
| 1996 | 58.8% | 35.5% | D+23.2 | R+0.8 |
| 1992 | 56.5% | 32.5% | D+24.0 | D+13.8 |
| 1988 | 54.8% | 44.6% | D+10.2 | D+6.5 |
| 1984 | 51.7% | 48.0% | D+3.7 | R+10.9 |
| 1980 | 52.9% | 38.3% | D+14.6 | R+0.7 |
| 1976 | 57.4% | 42.1% | D+15.4 | D+33.5 |
| 1972 | 40.4% | 58.5% | R+18.1 | R+25.9 |
| 1968 | 38.6% | 30.8% | D+7.8 | R+13.5 |
| 1964 | 60.7% | 39.3% | D+21.3 | D+5.5 |
| 1960 | 57.9% | 42.1% | D+15.8 | D+9.6 |
| 1956 | 53.1% | 46.9% | D+6.2 | R+17.5 |
| 1952 | 61.9% | 38.1% | D+23.8 | R+14.7 |
| 1948 | 65.3% | 26.8% | D+38.5 | — |
What defines Durham-Chapel Hill, NC?
It has a diverse, highly educated electorate — the core of the modern Democratic coalition.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Madison, WI
Educated rural democratic
Charlottesville, VA
Educated rural democratic
Ann Arbor, MI
Educated rural democratic
Boulder, CO
Educated rural democratic
Raleigh-Cary, NC
Educated rural competitive 2
Lansing-East Lansing, MI
Educated rural competitive 2
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
Educated rural competitive 2
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
Educated rural competitive 2
Counties in Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Durham-Chapel Hill, NC's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 45.9% margin
- College attainment is 54% — 21pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 53.0% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 23.4% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 13.6% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.2% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.8% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
44.9%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -24.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.7% | 39.5% | — | — | |
| 9.0% | 20.1% | — | — | |
| 8.8% | 19.7% | — | — | |
| 4.7% | 10.4% | — | — | |
| 4.3% | 9.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 2.0% | — | — |
| 0.3% | 0.7% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 55.1% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro area? 601,724 residents across 4 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
54% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 21pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+25 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
602K
Share of U.S. population
0.18%
Voting-age population
75.9%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$84,476
Poverty rate
12.1%
College degree
53.7%
Homeownership
62.2%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
38.2 yrs
Age 18–29
18.7%
Age 65+
16.8%
Foreign born
13.3%
Non-English at home
18.2%
English only
81.8%
Turnout in Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
75.1%
+1.7pp
456,707
1988–2024
How competitive is Durham-Chapel Hill, NC?
Safe DAvg margin: D+46.0 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+40.4
2012
D+39.4
2016
D+45.3
2020
D+46.7
2024
D+45.9
7.3pp
0
D+43.5
Do voters in Durham-Chapel Hill, NC split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (71/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Governor | D+45.9 | D+58.1 | 12.2pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 6.6pp
Located In
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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