Raleigh-Cary, NC
Safe Democratic — 1.5M residents — 3 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 57.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 12.4% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 18.7% |
▶Asian(6) | 7.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.3% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 18.3% | 39.5% |
| Catholic | 11.7% | 25.3% |
| Mainline Protestant | 7.0% | 15.1% |
| Other | 6.4% | 13.8% |
| Black Protestant | 2.6% | 5.7% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.5% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Non-religious | 53.5% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+16.3 |
| 2020 | Biden+17.3 |
| 2016 | Clinton+12.0 |
| 2012 | Obama+5.6 |
| 2008 | Obama+8.7 |
| 2004 | Bush+6.9 |
| 2000 | Bush+10.3 |
| 1996 | Dole+4.4 |
| 1992 | Bush+0.0 |
Raleigh-Cary, NC is a metro area that has a population of 1,487,302. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+16.3. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 57.2% | 40.9% | D+16.3 | R+1.0 |
| 2020 | 57.7% | 40.4% | D+17.3 | D+5.3 |
| 2016 | 53.4% | 41.4% | D+12.0 | D+6.3 |
| 2012 | 52.1% | 46.4% | D+5.6 | R+3.0 |
| 2008 | 53.9% | 45.2% | D+8.7 | D+15.6 |
| 2004 | 46.3% | 53.2% | R+6.9 | D+3.4 |
| 2000 | 44.4% | 54.8% | R+10.3 | R+5.9 |
| 1996 | 44.7% | 49.1% | R+4.4 | R+4.4 |
| 1992 | 42.3% | 42.3% | Even | D+15.2 |
| 1988 | 42.2% | 57.4% | R+15.2 | D+9.1 |
| 1984 | 37.7% | 62.0% | R+24.3 | R+24.5 |
| 1980 | 47.6% | 47.3% | D+0.2 | R+3.5 |
| 1976 | 51.6% | 47.9% | D+3.7 | D+48.5 |
| 1972 | 26.8% | 71.7% | R+44.9 | R+35.9 |
| 1968 | 29.1% | 38.1% | R+9.0 | R+27.2 |
| 1964 | 59.1% | 40.9% | D+18.3 | R+3.8 |
| 1960 | 61.0% | 39.0% | D+22.1 | R+6.5 |
| 1956 | 64.3% | 35.7% | D+28.5 | R+0.7 |
| 1952 | 64.6% | 35.4% | D+29.2 | R+25.9 |
| 1948 | 74.7% | 19.6% | D+55.1 | — |
What defines Raleigh-Cary, NC?
Raleigh-Cary, NC has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a diverse, highly educated electorate — the core of the modern Democratic coalition.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Raleigh-Cary, NC
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004
- College attainment is 51% — 18pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally
Who Lives Here
| Group | Raleigh-Cary, NC | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 57.2% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 18.7% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 12.4% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 7.0% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.3% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -18.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.3% | 39.5% | — | — | |
| 11.7% | 25.3% | — | — | |
| 7.0% | 15.1% | — | — | |
| 6.4% | 13.8% | — | — | |
| 2.6% | 5.7% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.5% | — | — |
| 0.3% | 0.6% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 53.5% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Raleigh-Cary, NC metro area? 1,487,302 residents across 3 counties.
Demographics
51% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 18pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+25 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Raleigh-Cary, NC
How competitive is Raleigh-Cary, NC?
Do voters in Raleigh-Cary, NC split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Governor | D+16.3 | D+36.3 | 20.0pp |