Fayetteville, NC
Leans Democratic — shifted 3.5pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 392K residents — 2 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 39.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 13.1% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 37.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.5% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 2.0% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5) | 0.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.8% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 34.5% | 60.9% |
| Black Protestant | 7.0% | 12.4% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.0% | 10.6% |
| Catholic | 5.7% | 10.0% |
| Other | 3.2% | 5.7% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.4% | 2.4% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 43.4% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+12.3 |
| 2020 | Biden+15.9 |
| 2016 | Clinton+15.3 |
| 2012 | Obama+19.6 |
| 2008 | Obama+17.8 |
| 2004 | Bush+2.6 |
| 2000 | Gore+2.4 |
| 1996 | Clinton+6.3 |
| 1992 | Clinton+7.3 |
Fayetteville, NC is a metro area that has a population of 392,380. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+12.3. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 55.4% | 43.1% | D+12.3 | R+3.5 |
| 2020 | 57.0% | 41.2% | D+15.9 | D+0.6 |
| 2016 | 55.8% | 40.5% | D+15.3 | R+4.3 |
| 2012 | 59.3% | 39.7% | D+19.6 | D+1.8 |
| 2008 | 58.6% | 40.8% | D+17.8 | D+20.4 |
| 2004 | 48.5% | 51.2% | R+2.6 | R+5.1 |
| 2000 | 50.9% | 48.5% | D+2.4 | R+3.8 |
| 1996 | 50.1% | 43.8% | D+6.3 | R+1.0 |
| 1992 | 48.0% | 40.7% | D+7.3 | D+10.9 |
| 1988 | 48.1% | 51.6% | R+3.6 | D+10.1 |
| 1984 | 43.0% | 56.8% | R+13.7 | R+19.2 |
| 1980 | 51.0% | 45.5% | D+5.5 | R+23.3 |
| 1976 | 64.2% | 35.4% | D+28.8 | D+68.2 |
| 1972 | 29.8% | 69.2% | R+39.4 | R+45.9 |
| 1968 | 36.6% | 30.0% | D+6.5 | R+17.5 |
| 1964 | 62.0% | 38.0% | D+24.0 | D+1.5 |
| 1960 | 61.3% | 38.7% | D+22.5 | D+2.6 |
| 1956 | 60.0% | 40.0% | D+19.9 | D+6.5 |
| 1952 | 56.7% | 43.3% | D+13.4 | R+28.1 |
| 1948 | 59.1% | 17.6% | D+41.5 | — |
What defines Fayetteville, NC?
Fayetteville, NC has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Fayetteville, NC
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland | 339K | D+13.4 | 78,631 | 59,840 | 140,513 | 86.1% |
| Hoke | 54K | D+5.9 | 11,896 | 10,547 | 22,767 | 13.9% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004
Who Lives Here
| Group | Fayetteville, NC | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 39.3% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 37.0% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 13.1% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.8% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.5% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 2.0% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -55.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.5% | 60.9% | — | — | |
| 7.0% | 12.4% | — | — | |
| 6.0% | 10.6% | — | — | |
| 5.7% | 10.0% | — | — | |
| 3.2% | 5.7% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.4% | 2.4% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 43.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Fayetteville, NC metro area? 392,380 residents across 2 counties.
Demographics
27% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Fayetteville, NC
How competitive is Fayetteville, NC?
Do voters in Fayetteville, NC split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Governor | D+12.3 | D+25.6 | 13.3pp |