Flagstaff, AZ
Safe Democratic — shifted 4.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 145K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 52.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 15.5% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 1.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 25.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.6% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 12.0% | 36.8% |
| Other | 11.6% | 35.5% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 9.4% | 28.7% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 7.1% | 21.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.6% | 4.9% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Black Protestant | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 67.4% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+19.8 |
| 2020 | Biden+24.1 |
| 2016 | Clinton+18.9 |
| 2012 | Obama+15.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+16.9 |
| 2004 | Kerry+12.8 |
| 2000 | Gore+6.6 |
| 1996 | Clinton+17.7 |
| 1992 | Clinton+12.0 |
Flagstaff, AZ is a metro area that has a population of 144,508. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+19.8. Akashic Edge tracks 29 presidential elections here, dating back to 1912.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 59.0% | 39.2% | D+19.8 | R+4.3 |
| 2020 | 60.9% | 36.9% | D+24.1 | D+5.2 |
| 2016 | 54.2% | 35.3% | D+18.9 | D+3.4 |
| 2012 | 56.3% | 40.8% | D+15.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2008 | 57.6% | 40.6% | D+16.9 | D+4.1 |
| 2004 | 55.8% | 43.0% | D+12.8 | D+6.2 |
| 2000 | 49.6% | 43.0% | D+6.6 | R+11.1 |
| 1996 | 53.2% | 35.4% | D+17.7 | D+5.7 |
| 1992 | 44.3% | 32.3% | D+12.0 | D+18.2 |
| 1988 | 45.6% | 51.8% | R+6.2 | D+14.2 |
| 1984 | 38.8% | 59.1% | R+20.4 | D+5.5 |
| 1980 | 29.9% | 55.8% | R+25.9 | R+18.5 |
| 1976 | 44.1% | 51.5% | R+7.4 | D+17.7 |
| 1972 | 35.9% | 61.0% | R+25.1 | D+3.5 |
| 1968 | 30.8% | 59.4% | R+28.6 | R+24.2 |
| 1964 | 47.7% | 52.2% | R+4.4 | D+4.6 |
| 1960 | 45.4% | 54.4% | R+9.0 | D+18.2 |
| 1956 | 36.3% | 63.5% | R+27.2 | R+4.4 |
| 1952 | 38.6% | 61.4% | R+22.8 | R+27.6 |
| 1948 | 52.0% | 47.1% | D+4.9 | — |
What defines Flagstaff, AZ?
It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Flagstaff, AZ
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconino | 145K | D+19.8 | 41,504 | 27,576 | 70,374 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Swung 4.3 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
| Group | Flagstaff, AZ | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 52.2% | 57.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 25.3% | 0.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 15.5% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.6% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.9% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 1.4% | 12.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +10.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.0% | 36.8% | — | — | |
| 11.6% | 35.5% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 9.4% | 28.7% | — | — |
| 7.1% | 21.9% | — | — | |
| 1.6% | 4.9% | — | — | |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | — | — | |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 67.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Flagstaff, AZ metro area? 144,508 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
40% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Flagstaff, AZ
How competitive is Flagstaff, AZ?
Do voters in Flagstaff, AZ split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+19.8 | D+26.0 | 6.2pp |