Great Falls, MT
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — 85K residents — 1 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 82.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(13) | 5.3% |
▶Black / African American(8) | 1.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(5) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 3.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 6.6% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 20.1% | 53.3% |
| Catholic | 7.2% | 19.0% |
| Other | 5.7% | 15.1% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 4.8% | 12.6% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.5% | 11.8% |
| Black Protestant | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Non-religious | 62.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+22.3 |
| 2020 | Trump+19.7 |
| 2016 | Trump+21.6 |
| 2012 | Romney+9.0 |
| 2008 | Obama+2.3 |
| 2004 | Bush+15.9 |
| 2000 | Bush+15.1 |
| 1996 | Clinton+4.0 |
| 1992 | Clinton+6.1 |
Great Falls, MT is a metro area that has a population of 84,606. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+22.3. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, dating back to 1892.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37.3% | 59.7% | R+22.3 | R+2.6 |
| 2020 | 38.8% | 58.5% | R+19.7 | D+1.9 |
| 2016 | 35.2% | 56.8% | R+21.6 | R+12.6 |
| 2012 | 44.1% | 53.1% | R+9.0 | R+11.3 |
| 2008 | 49.9% | 47.6% | D+2.3 | D+18.2 |
| 2004 | 40.9% | 56.9% | R+15.9 | R+0.8 |
| 2000 | 39.4% | 54.5% | R+15.1 | R+19.1 |
| 1996 | 44.9% | 40.8% | D+4.0 | R+2.0 |
| 1992 | 40.2% | 34.2% | D+6.1 | D+6.8 |
| 1988 | 48.9% | 49.6% | R+0.7 | D+15.5 |
| 1984 | 41.3% | 57.5% | R+16.2 | D+4.1 |
| 1980 | 34.5% | 54.8% | R+20.3 | R+18.3 |
| 1976 | 48.1% | 50.1% | R+2.0 | D+8.6 |
| 1972 | 41.8% | 52.4% | R+10.6 | R+17.7 |
| 1968 | 50.4% | 43.2% | D+7.2 | R+25.1 |
| 1964 | 65.9% | 33.6% | D+32.3 | D+23.9 |
| 1960 | 54.1% | 45.7% | D+8.4 | D+14.2 |
| 1956 | 47.1% | 52.9% | R+5.8 | R+0.9 |
| 1952 | 47.3% | 52.1% | R+4.8 | R+31.3 |
| 1948 | 61.0% | 34.5% | D+26.5 | — |
What defines Great Falls, MT?
Great Falls, MT has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (1D, 5R) — a genuine swing geography.
Constituent Counties
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Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Watertown, SD
Small-town rural republican 3
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Hutchinson, KS
Small-town rural republican 3
Seneca Falls, NY
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Ottawa, KS
Small-town rural republican 3
Kokomo, IN
Small-town rural republican 3
Fairmont, WV
Small-town rural republican 3
Pocatello, ID
Small-town rural republican 2
Counties in Great Falls, MT
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cascade | 85K | R+22.4 | 14,021 | 22,419 | 37,583 | 100.0% |
1 countiesTotal votes: 37,583
Ask the Historian
Explore Great Falls, MT's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 22.3% margin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2008, Republicans in 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 24.6 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Great Falls, MT | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 82.4% | 57.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 6.6% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(13) | 5.3% | 19.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 3.4% | 0.9% |
▶Black / African American(8) | 1.3% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.1% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(5) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
37.7%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -38.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.1% | 53.3% | — | — | |
| 7.2% | 19.0% | — | — | |
| 5.7% | 15.1% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 4.8% | 12.6% | — | — |
| 4.5% | 11.8% | — | — | |
| 0.3% | 0.7% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 62.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Great Falls, MT metro area? 84,606 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
85K
Share of U.S. population
0.03%
Voting-age population
74.4%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$67,690
Poverty rate
13.1%
College degree
28.4%
Homeownership
68.5%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
38.6 yrs
Age 18–29
15.8%
Age 65+
19.6%
Foreign born
2.3%
Non-English at home
4.1%
English only
95.9%
Turnout in Great Falls, MT
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
59.7%
-3.6pp
62,966
1988–2024
How competitive is Great Falls, MT?
Safe RAvg margin: R+21.2 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+2.3
2012
R+9.0
2016
R+21.6
2020
R+19.7
2024
R+22.3
24.6pp
3
R+14.1
Do voters in Great Falls, MT split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+6.6 | R+26.6 | 20.1pp |
| President vs Senate | R+22.3 | R+6.6 | 15.8pp |
| President vs Governor | R+22.3 | R+26.6 | 4.3pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 19.1pp
Located In
Great Falls, MT sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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