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Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

Latest: 2024↓ R+0.8 vs 2020

Leans Republican — 604K residents — 3 counties

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Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
72.0%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)
8.1%
▶Black / African American(14)
10.3%
▶Asian(6)
5.7%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)
0.6%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)
0.2%
Multiracial / Other
3.7%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Catholic12.8%31.0%
Mainline Protestant12.0%29.0%
Evangelical Protestant11.2%27.0%
Other3.4%8.1%
Black Protestant1.6%3.9%
LDS (Mormon)0.5%1.2%
Orthodox Christian0.4%1.1%
Non-religious58.6%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Trump+5.5
2020Trump+4.7
2016Trump+10.5
2012Romney+8.0
2008McCain+3.9
2004Bush+19.5
2000Bush+19.4
1996Dole+11.9
1992Bush+14.6
View full election history →

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA is a metro area that has a population of 604,155. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+5.5. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202446.6%52.2%R+5.5R+0.8
202046.9%51.6%R+4.7D+5.8
201642.1%52.6%R+10.5R+2.5
201245.2%53.2%R+8.0R+4.1
200847.3%51.2%R+3.9D+15.6
200440.0%59.5%R+19.5R+0.2
200039.0%58.4%R+19.4R+7.5
199639.8%51.8%R+11.9D+2.7
199234.1%48.7%R+14.6D+9.6
198837.5%61.7%R+24.3D+7.2
198433.9%65.3%R+31.4R+4.6
198032.1%58.9%R+26.9R+6.6
197638.8%59.0%R+20.2D+23.7
197227.1%71.0%R+43.9R+13.8
196830.0%60.2%R+30.2R+34.8
196452.0%47.4%D+4.6D+37.3
196033.4%66.1%R+32.7D+3.0
195632.0%67.7%R+35.7R+3.5
195233.8%66.0%R+32.2R+6.9
194836.9%62.2%R+25.3—
Political Identity

What defines Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA?

It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.

Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Dauphin290K
D+5.9
78,32769,474149,52646.2%
Cumberland268K
R+9.4
66,25580,267148,39645.9%
Perry46K
R+49.3
6,38519,07325,7257.9%
3 countiesTotal votes: 323,647
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
  • Closest recent contest: 2008 at just 3.9 points
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PACensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 72.0%Black 10.3%Hispanic 8.1%Asian 5.7%Multiracial 3.7%
GroupLocalNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
72.0%57.4%
▶Black / African American(14)
10.3%12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)
8.1%19.3%
▶Asian(6)
5.7%6.0%
Multiracial / Other
3.7%4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)
0.6%0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)
0.2%0.9%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
41.4%(250.3K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions
Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Catholic
12.8%31.0%——
Mainline Protestant
12.0%29.0%——
Evangelical Protestant
11.2%27.0%——
Other
3.4%8.1%——
Black Protestant
1.6%3.9%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.5%1.2%——
Orthodox Christian
0.4%1.1%——
Non-religiousPopulation
58.6%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA metro area? 604,155 residents across 3 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA vs National604K residents
Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
604K
local
604KNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.18%
local
0.18%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
75.2%
local
75.2%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$81,346
local
$81,346National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
10.1%
local
10.1%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
35.8%
local
35.8%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
68.0%
local
68.0%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
40.1 yrs
local
40.1 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.2%
local
15.2%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
18.7%
local
18.7%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
8.2%
local
8.2%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
12.2%
local
12.2%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
87.8%
local
87.8%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
71.2%
vs Previous
+2.2pp
Voting-Age Pop
454,624
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA?

Lean RAvg margin: R+6.9 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+3.9
2012
R+8.0
2016
R+10.5
2020
R+4.7
2024
R+5.5
Elasticity
6.6pp
margin range
Party Flips
0
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
R+6.5
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyModerate splitting (64/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateR+5.5R+4.70.8pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 7.8pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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