Rochester, MN
Latest: 2024
Competitive — 229K residents — 4 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 80.1% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 5.3% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 5.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.7% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.0% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Mainline Protestant | 19.0% | 35.9% |
| Catholic | 15.5% | 29.3% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 14.8% | 28.1% |
| Other | 3.4% | 6.4% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 2.8% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Non-religious | 47.2% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+1.0 |
| 2020 | Trump+0.1 |
| 2016 | Trump+7.3 |
| 2012 | Obama+1.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+2.0 |
| 2004 | Bush+5.7 |
| 2000 | Bush+6.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+3.4 |
| 1992 | Bush+4.7 |
Rochester, MN is a metro area that has a population of 228,522. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+1.0. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 48.3% | 49.3% | R+1.0 | R+0.9 |
| 2020 | 48.8% | 48.8% | R+0.1 | D+7.3 |
| 2016 | 41.4% | 48.8% | R+7.3 | R+8.8 |
| 2012 | 49.4% | 47.9% | D+1.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2008 | 49.9% | 47.9% | D+2.0 | D+7.7 |
| 2004 | 46.5% | 52.2% | R+5.7 | D+1.1 |
| 2000 | 43.9% | 50.7% | R+6.8 | R+10.2 |
| 1996 | 44.8% | 41.4% | D+3.4 | D+8.1 |
| 1992 | 34.3% | 39.1% | R+4.7 | D+9.4 |
| 1988 | 42.5% | 56.6% | R+14.2 | D+9.2 |
| 1984 | 37.9% | 61.3% | R+23.4 | R+3.5 |
| 1980 | 35.5% | 55.3% | R+19.8 | R+2.9 |
| 1976 | 40.4% | 57.3% | R+16.9 | D+20.2 |
| 1972 | 30.2% | 67.3% | R+37.1 | R+23.8 |
| 1968 | 41.4% | 54.8% | R+13.3 | R+25.4 |
| 1964 | 56.0% | 43.9% | D+12.1 | D+33.5 |
| 1960 | 39.2% | 60.6% | R+21.4 | D+10.8 |
| 1956 | 33.8% | 66.0% | R+32.2 | D+9.2 |
| 1952 | 29.1% | 70.5% | R+41.4 | R+42.5 |
| 1948 | 50.0% | 48.9% | D+1.1 | — |
What defines Rochester, MN?
Rochester, MN has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (2D, 4R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a highly educated electorate (43% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Democrats nationwide.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
Educated rural competitive 2
Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI
Educated rural competitive 2
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
Educated rural competitive 2
Cedar Rapids, IA
Small-town rural republican 2
Portland-South Portland, ME
Educated rural democratic
Charlottesville, VA
Educated rural democratic
Appleton, WI
Small-town rural republican 2
Bend, OR
Educated rural democratic
Counties in Rochester, MN
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Rochester, MN's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2020 election was decided by just 0.1 points — razor-thin
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Rochester, MN | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 80.1% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 5.6% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 5.3% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.8% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.0% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.7% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
52.8%
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.0% | 35.9% | — | — | |
| 15.5% | 29.3% | — | — | |
| 14.8% | 28.1% | — | — | |
| 3.4% | 6.4% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 2.8% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.3% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 47.2% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Rochester, MN metro area? 228,522 residents across 4 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
43% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
229K
Share of U.S. population
0.07%
Voting-age population
74.4%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$92,434
Poverty rate
7.5%
College degree
43.1%
Homeownership
74.3%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
39.0 yrs
Age 18–29
14.3%
Age 65+
17.7%
Foreign born
8.5%
Non-English at home
11.5%
English only
88.5%
Turnout in Rochester, MN
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
76.1%
+0.3pp
169,951
1988–2024
How competitive is Rochester, MN?
Tilt RAvg margin: R+2.8 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+2.0
2012
D+1.5
2016
R+7.3
2020
R+0.1
2024
R+1.0
9.3pp
3
R+1.0
Do voters in Rochester, MN split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (40/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+1.0 | D+10.8 | 11.8pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 11.5pp
Located In
Rochester, MN sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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