Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — 368K residents — 4 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 77.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 9.1% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 6.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.6% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.1% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 37.4% | 62.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 12.1% | 20.4% |
| Catholic | 6.4% | 10.8% |
| Black Protestant | 2.0% | 3.4% |
| Other | 1.5% | 2.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.0% |
| Non-religious | 40.5% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+44.2 |
| 2020 | Trump+43.1 |
| 2016 | Trump+42.5 |
| 2012 | Romney+31.0 |
| 2008 | McCain+26.1 |
| 2004 | Bush+33.3 |
| 2000 | Bush+31.7 |
| 1996 | Dole+19.1 |
| 1992 | Bush+13.0 |
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC is a metro area that has a population of 368,316. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+44.2. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27.4% | 71.6% | R+44.2 | R+1.0 |
| 2020 | 27.8% | 71.0% | R+43.1 | R+0.7 |
| 2016 | 26.9% | 69.4% | R+42.5 | R+11.5 |
| 2012 | 33.7% | 64.7% | R+31.0 | R+4.9 |
| 2008 | 36.3% | 62.4% | R+26.1 | D+7.2 |
| 2004 | 33.1% | 66.5% | R+33.3 | R+1.6 |
| 2000 | 33.8% | 65.5% | R+31.7 | R+12.6 |
| 1996 | 35.9% | 55.0% | R+19.1 | R+6.1 |
| 1992 | 36.0% | 49.0% | R+13.0 | D+18.0 |
| 1988 | 34.4% | 65.4% | R+31.0 | D+8.3 |
| 1984 | 30.2% | 69.6% | R+39.3 | R+22.4 |
| 1980 | 40.2% | 57.0% | R+16.9 | R+22.3 |
| 1976 | 52.5% | 47.1% | D+5.4 | D+50.6 |
| 1972 | 26.6% | 71.7% | R+45.1 | R+15.3 |
| 1968 | 22.9% | 52.7% | R+29.8 | R+34.0 |
| 1964 | 52.1% | 47.9% | D+4.2 | D+18.0 |
| 1960 | 43.1% | 56.9% | R+13.8 | D+8.5 |
| 1956 | 38.8% | 61.2% | R+22.3 | R+6.4 |
| 1952 | 42.0% | 58.0% | R+16.0 | R+14.0 |
| 1948 | 45.2% | 47.2% | R+2.0 | — |
What defines Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC?
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC has been trending Republican — 13pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles.
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Counties in Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 44.2% margin
- Shifted 13.2 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 77.9% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 9.1% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 6.4% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.1% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.9% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
59.5%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -56.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37.4% | 62.9% | — | — | |
| 12.1% | 20.4% | — | — | |
| 6.4% | 10.8% | — | — | |
| 2.0% | 3.4% | — | — | |
| 1.5% | 2.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.0% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 40.5% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC metro area? 368,316 residents across 4 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
22% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
368K
Share of U.S. population
0.11%
Voting-age population
77.7%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$62,859
Poverty rate
13.5%
College degree
22.4%
Homeownership
73.8%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
43.7 yrs
Age 18–29
13.9%
Age 65+
20.3%
Foreign born
5.3%
Non-English at home
9.8%
English only
90.2%
Turnout in Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
68.9%
+2.1pp
286,261
1988–2024
How competitive is Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC?
Safe RAvg margin: R+43.2 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+26.1
2012
R+31.0
2016
R+42.5
2020
R+43.1
2024
R+44.2
18.0pp
0
R+37.4
Do voters in Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (46/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Governor | R+44.2 | R+25.6 | 18.6pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 10.7pp
Located In
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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