Lexington-Fayette, KY
Competitive — shifted 3.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 523K residents — 6 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 73.8% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 8.1% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 10.5% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 26.6% | 56.8% |
| Mainline Protestant | 8.0% | 17.0% |
| Catholic | 5.7% | 12.2% |
| Black Protestant | 3.4% | 7.3% |
| Other | 3.0% | 6.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.5% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 53.0% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+1.4 |
| 2020 | Biden+2.2 |
| 2016 | Trump+6.9 |
| 2012 | Romney+10.2 |
| 2008 | McCain+6.3 |
| 2004 | Bush+14.4 |
| 2000 | Bush+12.3 |
| 1996 | Dole+0.9 |
| 1992 | Bush+4.8 |
Lexington-Fayette, KY is a metro area that has a population of 522,560. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+1.4. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 48.3% | 49.7% | R+1.4 | R+3.6 |
| 2020 | 50.0% | 47.8% | D+2.2 | D+9.1 |
| 2016 | 43.2% | 50.1% | R+6.9 | D+3.4 |
| 2012 | 43.8% | 54.0% | R+10.2 | R+3.9 |
| 2008 | 46.2% | 52.5% | R+6.3 | D+8.1 |
| 2004 | 42.4% | 56.8% | R+14.4 | R+2.1 |
| 2000 | 42.3% | 54.6% | R+12.3 | R+11.4 |
| 1996 | 45.7% | 46.6% | R+0.9 | D+3.8 |
| 1992 | 39.3% | 44.0% | R+4.8 | D+15.0 |
| 1988 | 39.6% | 59.4% | R+19.7 | D+9.6 |
| 1984 | 34.9% | 64.2% | R+29.3 | R+26.0 |
| 1980 | 44.9% | 48.3% | R+3.4 | D+0.8 |
| 1976 | 46.7% | 50.8% | R+4.2 | D+31.9 |
| 1972 | 30.8% | 66.9% | R+36.1 | R+24.8 |
| 1968 | 34.7% | 45.9% | R+11.2 | R+32.9 |
| 1964 | 60.6% | 39.0% | D+21.6 | D+34.8 |
| 1960 | 43.4% | 56.6% | R+13.2 | R+2.7 |
| 1956 | 44.3% | 54.8% | R+10.5 | R+12.2 |
| 1952 | 50.7% | 49.0% | D+1.7 | R+19.2 |
| 1948 | 58.7% | 37.8% | D+20.9 | — |
What defines Lexington-Fayette, KY?
Lexington-Fayette, KY has flipped between parties in each of the last three elections — a fiercely contested battleground. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Lexington-Fayette, KY
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- The 2024 election was decided by just 1.4 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
- Margins have been narrowing — from 6.9pp to 1.4pp over the last 3 presidential elections
Who Lives Here
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 73.8% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 10.5% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 8.1% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.2% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.1% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -49.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.6% | 56.8% | — | — | |
| 8.0% | 17.0% | — | — | |
| 5.7% | 12.2% | — | — | |
| 3.4% | 7.3% | — | — | |
| 3.0% | 6.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.5% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 53.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Lexington-Fayette, KY metro area? 522,560 residents across 6 counties.
Demographics
42% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 9pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Lexington-Fayette, KY
How competitive is Lexington-Fayette, KY?
Do voters in Lexington-Fayette, KY split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+2.2 | D+3.9 | 1.7pp |