Magnolia, AR
Safe Republican — shifted 5.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 22K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 58.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(6) | 3.5% |
▶Black / African American(4) | 34.4% |
▶Asian(3) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.4% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 48.6% | 57.6% |
| Black Protestant | 26.2% | 31.0% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.6% | 7.9% |
| Other | 1.6% | 1.9% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.6% | 1.9% |
| Catholic | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| Non-religious | 15.6% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+36.5 |
| 2020 | Trump+31.2 |
| 2016 | Trump+26.6 |
| 2012 | Romney+23.6 |
| 2008 | McCain+24.1 |
| 2004 | Bush+16.4 |
| 2000 | Bush+10.9 |
| 1996 | Clinton+15.1 |
| 1992 | Clinton+10.6 |
Magnolia, AR is a metro area that has a population of 22,349. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+36.5. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31.1% | 67.6% | R+36.5 | R+5.4 |
| 2020 | 32.7% | 63.8% | R+31.2 | R+4.6 |
| 2016 | 36.0% | 62.6% | R+26.6 | R+3.0 |
| 2012 | 37.6% | 61.2% | R+23.6 | D+0.5 |
| 2008 | 37.2% | 61.3% | R+24.1 | R+7.8 |
| 2004 | 41.5% | 57.8% | R+16.4 | R+5.5 |
| 2000 | 43.0% | 53.9% | R+10.9 | R+26.0 |
| 1996 | 52.7% | 37.6% | D+15.1 | D+4.4 |
| 1992 | 48.3% | 37.7% | D+10.6 | D+32.1 |
| 1988 | 37.8% | 59.3% | R+21.5 | D+6.2 |
| 1984 | 35.8% | 63.5% | R+27.7 | R+19.5 |
| 1980 | 44.6% | 52.8% | R+8.2 | R+12.8 |
| 1976 | 52.3% | 47.6% | D+4.7 | D+49.6 |
| 1972 | 27.3% | 72.3% | R+45.0 | R+51.9 |
| 1968 | 30.2% | 23.2% | D+6.9 | D+13.9 |
| 1964 | 46.3% | 53.2% | R+7.0 | R+7.9 |
| 1960 | 43.3% | 42.3% | D+1.0 | R+8.3 |
| 1956 | 52.7% | 43.4% | D+9.3 | R+17.6 |
| 1952 | 63.4% | 36.4% | D+26.9 | R+25.8 |
| 1948 | 60.0% | 7.3% | D+52.7 | — |
What defines Magnolia, AR?
Magnolia, AR has been trending Republican — 13pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a working-class electorate (22% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Republicans nationwide.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Magnolia, AR
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia | 22K | R+36.5 | 2,466 | 5,367 | 7,940 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 36.5% margin
- Shifted 12.9 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
Who Lives Here
| Group | Magnolia, AR | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 58.2% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(4) | 34.4% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(6) | 3.5% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.4% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(3) | 0.4% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -60.5pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.6% | 57.6% | — | — | |
| 26.2% | 31.0% | — | — | |
| 6.6% | 7.9% | — | — | |
| 1.6% | 1.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.6% | 1.9% | — | — |
| 1.3% | 1.6% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 15.6% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Magnolia, AR metro area? 22,349 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
22% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Magnolia, AR
How competitive is Magnolia, AR?
Do voters in Magnolia, AR split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+40.1 | R+35.0 | 5.1pp |