Marshall, MO
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 3.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 23K residents — 1 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 75.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(10) | 12.6% |
▶Black / African American(4) | 4.9% |
▶Asian(4) | 0.6% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.1% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 1.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.1% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 28.5% | 58.2% |
| Catholic | 10.3% | 21.0% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.8% | 13.9% |
| Other | 1.9% | 3.8% |
| Black Protestant | 1.5% | 3.1% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.4% | 3.0% |
| Non-religious | 51.0% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+40.4 |
| 2020 | Trump+37.3 |
| 2016 | Trump+34.4 |
| 2012 | Romney+14.4 |
| 2008 | McCain+2.5 |
| 2004 | Bush+9.2 |
| 2000 | Gore+0.1 |
| 1996 | Clinton+20.7 |
| 1992 | Clinton+19.2 |
Marshall, MO is a metro area that has a population of 23,231. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+40.4. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29.2% | 69.6% | R+40.4 | R+3.2 |
| 2020 | 30.5% | 67.8% | R+37.3 | R+2.9 |
| 2016 | 30.1% | 64.4% | R+34.4 | R+19.9 |
| 2012 | 41.6% | 56.0% | R+14.4 | R+11.9 |
| 2008 | 47.8% | 50.4% | R+2.5 | D+6.6 |
| 2004 | 45.1% | 54.2% | R+9.2 | R+9.3 |
| 2000 | 49.0% | 48.9% | D+0.1 | R+20.6 |
| 1996 | 53.8% | 33.1% | D+20.7 | D+1.5 |
| 1992 | 45.7% | 26.4% | D+19.2 | D+15.0 |
| 1988 | 52.0% | 47.7% | D+4.3 | D+21.3 |
| 1984 | 41.5% | 58.5% | R+17.1 | R+14.5 |
| 1980 | 46.7% | 49.3% | R+2.6 | R+11.9 |
| 1976 | 54.3% | 45.0% | D+9.3 | D+40.8 |
| 1972 | 34.3% | 65.7% | R+31.5 | R+31.0 |
| 1968 | 46.2% | 46.8% | R+0.5 | R+34.1 |
| 1964 | 66.8% | 33.2% | D+33.6 | D+34.5 |
| 1960 | 49.5% | 50.5% | R+1.0 | D+0.1 |
| 1956 | 49.5% | 50.5% | R+1.1 | D+3.5 |
| 1952 | 47.6% | 52.2% | R+4.6 | R+24.2 |
| 1948 | 59.7% | 40.1% | D+19.6 | — |
What defines Marshall, MO?
Marshall, MO has been trending Republican — 26pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles.
Constituent Counties
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Enid, OK
Small-town rural republican 3
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Martin, TN
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Mountain Home, ID
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Arkansas City-Winfield, KS
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Cedar City, UT
Small-town rural republican 3
Atchison, KS
Small-town rural republican 3
Sedalia, MO
Small-town rural republican 3
Counties in Marshall, MO
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saline | 23K | R+40.4 | 2,726 | 6,498 | 9,330 | 100.0% |
1 countiesTotal votes: 9,330
Ask the Historian
Explore Marshall, MO's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 40.4% margin
- Shifted 26.0 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Marshall, MO | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 75.3% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(10) | 12.6% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.1% | 4.0% |
▶Black / African American(4) | 4.9% | 12.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 1.4% | 0.2% |
▶Asian(4) | 0.6% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
49.0%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -41.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.5% | 58.2% | — | — | |
| 10.3% | 21.0% | — | — | |
| 6.8% | 13.9% | — | — | |
| 1.9% | 3.8% | — | — | |
| 1.5% | 3.1% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.4% | 3.0% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 51.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Marshall, MO metro area? 23,231 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
23% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
23K
Share of U.S. population
0.01%
Voting-age population
71.5%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$57,931
Poverty rate
16.4%
College degree
22.7%
Homeownership
69.8%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
35.3 yrs
Age 18–29
20.8%
Age 65+
17.2%
Foreign born
5.8%
Non-English at home
8.8%
English only
91.2%
Turnout in Marshall, MO
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
56.2%
-1.1pp
16,608
1988–2024
How competitive is Marshall, MO?
Safe RAvg margin: R+37.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+2.5
2012
R+14.4
2016
R+34.4
2020
R+37.3
2024
R+40.4
37.9pp
1
R+25.8
Do voters in Marshall, MO split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (16/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+31.6 | R+41.6 | 10.0pp |
| President vs Senate | R+40.4 | R+31.6 | 8.8pp |
| President vs Governor | R+40.4 | R+41.6 | 1.2pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 14.9pp
Located In
Marshall, MO sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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