How did Niles, MI vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Niles, MI voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+7.9. Kamala D Harris received 38,323 votes and Donald Trump received 44,975 out of 84,488 total votes cast, a 0.5-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Niles, MI's political history?

Niles, MI has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 5 and Republicans 35 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 51.3 points in 1896.

What are the demographics of Niles, MI?

Niles, MI has a population of 153,288 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 72.7% non-Hispanic white, 6.3% Hispanic, 13.2% Black. About 31% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $65,425.

Which places are most similar to Niles, MI?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Niles, MI are Springfield, IL, Port Angeles, WA, Augusta-Waterville, ME. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Niles, MI

Latest: 2024→ Even vs 2020

Leans Republican — 153K residents — 1 counties

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Race & ancestry

Group	%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	72.7%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)	6.3%
▶Black / African American(12)	13.2%
▶Asian(6)	1.8%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7)	0.3%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.3%
Multiracial / Other	5.7%

View full demographics →

Religious adherence

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	20.7%	47.2%
Catholic	11.3%	25.7%
Black Protestant	5.8%	13.3%
Mainline Protestant	3.9%	8.9%
Other	2.1%	4.8%
LDS (Mormon)	0.7%	1.7%
Non-religious	56.0%	—

View full religion →

Presidential results

Year	Result
2024	Trump+7.9
2020	Trump+7.4
2016	Trump+12.7
2012	Romney+6.5
2008	Obama+5.5
2004	Bush+11.0
2000	Bush+11.6
1996	Dole+6.1
1992	Bush+4.9

View full election history →

Niles, MI is a metro area that has a population of 153,288. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+7.9. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

Niles, MI Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	45.4%	53.2%	R+7.9	R+0.5
2020	45.4%	52.8%	R+7.4	D+5.3
2016	40.9%	53.7%	R+12.7	R+6.2
2012	46.0%	52.5%	R+6.5	R+12.0
2008	51.9%	46.4%	D+5.5	D+16.5
2004	44.0%	55.0%	R+11.0	D+0.5
2000	43.2%	54.7%	R+11.6	R+5.4
1996	41.5%	47.6%	R+6.1	R+1.2
1992	37.1%	42.0%	R+4.9	D+21.4
1988	36.5%	62.8%	R+26.3	D+7.5
1984	32.7%	66.6%	R+33.8	R+5.4
1980	32.6%	61.0%	R+28.4	R+4.9
1976	37.7%	61.1%	R+23.5	D+15.3
1972	29.5%	68.3%	R+38.8	R+21.5
1968	33.8%	51.1%	R+17.3	R+29.4
1964	55.9%	43.9%	D+12.1	D+34.2
1960	38.8%	60.8%	R+22.1	D+9.3
1956	34.1%	65.5%	R+31.3	R+4.9
1952	36.5%	62.9%	R+26.5	R+6.4
1948	38.9%	58.9%	R+20.0	—

Political Identity

What defines Niles, MI?

Niles, MI has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (1D, 5R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Springfield, IL

Small-town rural republican 2

R+7.2

Similarity score89%

Port Angeles, WA

Small-town rural republican

D+7.8

Similarity score88%

Augusta-Waterville, ME

Small-town rural republican 2

R+2.8

Similarity score88%

Port Townsend, WA

Educated rural democratic

D+45.1

Similarity score88%

Brevard, NC

Small-town rural republican

R+12.1

Similarity score87%

Newport, OR

Small-town rural republican

D+18.3

Similarity score87%

Saginaw, MI

Small-town rural republican 2

R+3.3

Similarity score87%

Hudson, NY

Educated rural democratic

D+14.6

Similarity score87%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Niles, MI

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Berrien	153K	R+7.9	38,323	44,975	84,488	100.0%

1 countiesTotal votes: 84,488

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Niles, MI's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Niles, MI metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.

Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2008, Republicans in 2024
Has changed party control 8 times across its presidential election history

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Niles, MICensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 72.7%Black 13.2%Hispanic 6.3%Multiracial 5.7%Asian 1.8%

Group	Niles, MI	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	72.7%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(12)	13.2%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)	6.3%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	5.7%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	1.8%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7)	0.3%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.3%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

44.0%(67.4K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -25.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	20.7%	47.2%	—	—
Catholic	11.3%	25.7%	—	—
Black Protestant	5.8%	13.3%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	3.9%	8.9%	—	—
Other	2.1%	4.8%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.7%	1.7%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	56.0%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Niles, MI metro area? 153,288 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Niles, MI vs National153K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

153K

local

153KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.05%

local

0.05%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

76.7%

local

76.7%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$65,425

local

$65,425National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

15.1%

local

15.1%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

30.9%

local

30.9%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

72.8%

local

72.8%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

42.7 yrs

local

42.7 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.6%

local

13.6%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

21.3%

local

21.3%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.5%

local

5.5%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

7.9%

local

7.9%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

92.1%

local

92.1%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Niles, MI

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

71.9%

vs Previous

+1.8pp

Voting-Age Pop

117,539

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Niles, MI?

Lean RAvg margin: R+9.3 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+5.5

2012

R+6.5

2016

R+12.7

2020

R+7.4

2024

R+7.9

Elasticity

18.2pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+5.8

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Niles, MI split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyStraight-ticket (82/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+7.9	R+10.6	2.8pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 4.6pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Niles, MI sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Michigan(State)

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