Saginaw, MI
Latest: 2024
Competitive — shifted 3.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 189K residents — 1 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 67.8% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(14) | 9.2% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 18.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 17.4% | 36.1% |
| Catholic | 16.8% | 35.0% |
| Black Protestant | 7.5% | 15.6% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.7% | 9.7% |
| Other | 1.5% | 3.1% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Non-religious | 51.8% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+3.3 |
| 2020 | Biden+0.3 |
| 2016 | Trump+1.1 |
| 2012 | Obama+11.9 |
| 2008 | Obama+17.3 |
| 2004 | Kerry+7.5 |
| 2000 | Gore+10.3 |
| 1996 | Clinton+18.2 |
| 1992 | Clinton+12.1 |
Saginaw, MI is a metro area that has a population of 188,665. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+3.3. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 47.7% | 51.0% | R+3.3 | R+3.6 |
| 2020 | 49.4% | 49.1% | D+0.3 | D+1.4 |
| 2016 | 46.8% | 48.0% | R+1.1 | R+13.0 |
| 2012 | 55.3% | 43.5% | D+11.9 | R+5.4 |
| 2008 | 57.8% | 40.5% | D+17.3 | D+9.8 |
| 2004 | 53.4% | 45.9% | D+7.5 | R+2.8 |
| 2000 | 54.2% | 43.9% | D+10.3 | R+7.9 |
| 1996 | 54.2% | 36.0% | D+18.2 | D+6.1 |
| 1992 | 45.2% | 33.1% | D+12.1 | D+8.5 |
| 1988 | 51.5% | 47.9% | D+3.6 | D+18.1 |
| 1984 | 42.5% | 57.0% | R+14.5 | R+10.6 |
| 1980 | 44.4% | 48.2% | R+3.8 | D+8.7 |
| 1976 | 43.2% | 55.6% | R+12.5 | D+11.1 |
| 1972 | 37.5% | 61.0% | R+23.6 | R+16.1 |
| 1968 | 41.7% | 49.2% | R+7.5 | R+30.8 |
| 1964 | 61.6% | 38.3% | D+23.3 | D+35.0 |
| 1960 | 44.0% | 55.7% | R+11.6 | D+14.0 |
| 1956 | 37.0% | 62.7% | R+25.6 | D+3.7 |
| 1952 | 34.9% | 64.2% | R+29.3 | R+14.8 |
| 1948 | 41.7% | 56.3% | R+14.6 | — |
What defines Saginaw, MI?
Saginaw, MI has flipped between parties in each of the last three elections — a fiercely contested battleground.
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Counties in Saginaw, MI
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saginaw | 189K | R+3.3 | 49,515 | 52,912 | 103,846 | 100.0% |
1 countiesTotal votes: 103,846
Ask the Historian
Explore Saginaw, MI's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2020 election was decided by just 0.3 points — razor-thin
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Saginaw, MI | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 67.8% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 18.6% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(14) | 9.2% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.9% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.2% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
48.2%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -5.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.4% | 36.1% | — | — | |
| 16.8% | 35.0% | — | — | |
| 7.5% | 15.6% | — | — | |
| 4.7% | 9.7% | — | — | |
| 1.5% | 3.1% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 0.6% | — | — |
| 0.3% | 0.6% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 51.8% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Saginaw, MI metro area? 188,665 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
24% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 9pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
189K
Share of U.S. population
0.06%
Voting-age population
75.4%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$60,622
Poverty rate
18.2%
College degree
24.4%
Homeownership
74.1%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
41.2 yrs
Age 18–29
15.5%
Age 65+
20.4%
Foreign born
2.4%
Non-English at home
4.6%
English only
95.4%
Turnout in Saginaw, MI
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
73.0%
+0.3pp
142,219
1988–2024
How competitive is Saginaw, MI?
TossupAvg margin: R+1.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+17.3
2012
D+11.9
2016
R+1.1
2020
D+0.3
2024
R+3.3
20.6pp
3
D+5.0
Do voters in Saginaw, MI split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (51/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+3.3 | R+0.0 | 3.3pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 9.9pp
Located In
Saginaw, MI sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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