Sterling, IL
Leans Republican — shifted 6.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 55K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 80.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(9) | 13.3% |
▶Black / African American(4) | 1.3% |
▶Asian(5) | 0.5% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3) | 0.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.6% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 26.1% | 40.9% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 19.8% | 31.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 16.9% | 26.6% |
| Other | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 1.3% |
| Non-religious | 36.3% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+14.7 |
| 2020 | Trump+8.3 |
| 2016 | Trump+6.2 |
| 2012 | Obama+17.0 |
| 2008 | Obama+17.5 |
| 2004 | Kerry+2.8 |
| 2000 | Gore+6.6 |
| 1996 | Clinton+13.1 |
| 1992 | Clinton+8.0 |
Sterling, IL is a metro area that has a population of 54,947. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+14.7. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 41.6% | 56.3% | R+14.7 | R+6.4 |
| 2020 | 44.7% | 53.0% | R+8.3 | R+2.1 |
| 2016 | 43.1% | 49.3% | R+6.2 | R+23.2 |
| 2012 | 57.4% | 40.5% | D+17.0 | R+0.5 |
| 2008 | 57.8% | 40.3% | D+17.5 | D+14.7 |
| 2004 | 51.1% | 48.2% | D+2.8 | R+3.8 |
| 2000 | 52.3% | 45.6% | D+6.6 | R+6.5 |
| 1996 | 51.0% | 37.9% | D+13.1 | D+5.0 |
| 1992 | 45.4% | 37.4% | D+8.0 | D+14.8 |
| 1988 | 46.3% | 53.1% | R+6.7 | D+12.9 |
| 1984 | 40.0% | 59.6% | R+19.6 | D+19.5 |
| 1980 | 27.6% | 66.7% | R+39.1 | R+27.3 |
| 1976 | 43.5% | 55.3% | R+11.8 | D+25.3 |
| 1972 | 31.3% | 68.4% | R+37.1 | R+8.4 |
| 1968 | 33.1% | 61.9% | R+28.7 | R+27.1 |
| 1964 | 49.2% | 50.8% | R+1.6 | D+29.7 |
| 1960 | 34.3% | 65.6% | R+31.3 | D+16.9 |
| 1956 | 25.9% | 74.1% | R+48.2 | R+1.4 |
| 1952 | 26.4% | 73.3% | R+46.8 | R+5.4 |
| 1948 | 28.8% | 70.3% | R+41.5 | — |
What defines Sterling, IL?
Sterling, IL has been trending Republican — 32pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a working-class electorate (20% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Republicans nationwide.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Sterling, IL
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whiteside | 55K | R+14.7 | 11,012 | 14,898 | 26,447 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Shifted 31.7 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 32.2 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
| Group | Sterling, IL | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 80.9% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(9) | 13.3% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.6% | 4.0% |
▶Black / African American(4) | 1.3% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(5) | 0.5% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +5.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.1% | 40.9% | — | — | |
| 19.8% | 31.1% | — | — | |
| 16.9% | 26.6% | — | — | |
| 0.9% | 1.4% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 1.3% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 36.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Sterling, IL metro area? 54,947 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
20% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 13pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Sterling, IL
How competitive is Sterling, IL?
Do voters in Sterling, IL split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+10.1 | R+13.7 | 3.6pp |