How did Stockton-Lodi, CA vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Stockton-Lodi, CA voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+0.9. Kamala D Harris received 126,647 votes and Donald Trump received 128,996 out of 263,671 total votes cast, a 14.8-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Stockton-Lodi, CA's political history?

Stockton-Lodi, CA has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 14 and Republicans 26 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 90.8 points in 1872.

What are the demographics of Stockton-Lodi, CA?

Stockton-Lodi, CA has a population of 797,334 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 26.8% non-Hispanic white, 42.5% Hispanic, 6.9% Black. About 23% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $92,179.

Which places are most similar to Stockton-Lodi, CA?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Stockton-Lodi, CA are Yuba City, CA, Fresno, CA, Modesto, CA. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Stockton-Lodi, CA

Latest: 2024↓ R+14.8 vs 2020

Competitive — shifted 14.8pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 797K residents — 1 counties

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Presidential margin · 2008 → 2024

Full history

2008
D+10.6
Obama
2012
D+13.7
Obama
2016
D+14.2
Clinton
2020
D+13.9
Biden
2024
R+0.9
Trump

Who lives here

Full breakdown

Hispanic42.5%
White26.8%
Asian18.6%

Economy & age

Population: 797K
Median age: 35.4; −3.7pp vs U.S.
Median income: $92K; +$8K vs U.S.
College+: 23%; −12.9pp vs U.S.

Faith & language

Full detail

Catholic21.0%
Evangelical8.6%

57% English only43% Non-English

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Yuba City, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+29.2

Similarity score97%

Fresno, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+6.7

Similarity score95%

Modesto, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+11.0

Similarity score95%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

Diverse rural democratic

D+24.7

Similarity score95%

Vallejo, CA

Diverse rural democratic

D+23.0

Similarity score94%

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+1.7

Similarity score94%

Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV

Diverse rural democratic

D+2.6

Similarity score94%

Merced, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+4.4

Similarity score93%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Stockton-Lodi, CA

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
San Joaquin	797K	R+0.9	126,647	128,996	263,671	100.0%

1 countiesTotal votes: 263,671

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Stockton-Lodi, CA's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Stockton-Lodi, CA metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Stockton-Lodi, CACensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

Hispanic 42.5%White (Non-Hispanic) 26.8%Asian 18.6%Black 6.9%Multiracial 3.1%Native American 1.5%Native Hawaiian 0.6%

Group	Stockton-Lodi, CA	National
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	42.5%	19.3%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	26.8%	57.4%
▶Asian(6)	18.6%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(13)	6.9%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	3.1%	4.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)	1.5%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	0.7%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6)	0.6%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

37.2%(296.8K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +28.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	21.0%	56.5%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	8.6%	23.1%	—	—
Other	5.3%	14.3%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	1.5%	3.9%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	1.2%	3.1%	—	—
Black Protestant	1.0%	2.6%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.1%	0.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	62.8%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Stockton-Lodi, CA metro area? 797,334 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Stockton-Lodi, CA vs National797K residents

23% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

797K

local

797KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.24%

local

0.24%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

72.0%

local

72.0%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$92,179

local

$92,179National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.4%

local

12.4%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

22.8%

local

22.8%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

62.0%

local

62.0%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

35.4 yrs

local

35.4 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.1%

local

16.1%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.5%

local

13.5%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

25.2%

local

25.2%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

43.0%

local

43.0%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

57.0%

local

57.0%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Stockton-Lodi, CA

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

52.8%

vs Previous

-5.0pp

Eligible Non-Voters

236K · 47.2%

Citizen VAP

499,410

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Stockton-Lodi, CA?

Lean DAvg margin: D+9.1 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+10.6

2012

D+13.7

2016

D+14.2

2020

D+13.9

2024

R+0.9

Elasticity

15.1pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+10.3

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Stockton-Lodi, CA split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+0.9	R+0.7	0.2pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 29.5pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Stockton-Lodi, CA sits inside these higher-level geographies.

California(State)

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