How did Youngstown-Warren, OH vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Youngstown-Warren, OH voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+12.8. Kamala D Harris received 90,394 votes and Donald Trump received 117,232 out of 209,237 total votes cast, a 6.9-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Youngstown-Warren, OH's political history?

Youngstown-Warren, OH has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 20 and Republicans 20 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 49.2 points in 1936.

What are the demographics of Youngstown-Warren, OH?

Youngstown-Warren, OH has a population of 427,420 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 78.8% non-Hispanic white, 4.7% Hispanic, 11.2% Black. About 24% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $56,704.

Which places are most similar to Youngstown-Warren, OH?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Youngstown-Warren, OH are Springfield, OH, Clinton, IA, Flint, MI. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Youngstown-Warren, OH

Latest: 2024↓ R+6.9 vs 2020

Leans Republican — shifted 6.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 427K residents — 2 counties

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Race & ancestry

Group	%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	78.8%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)	4.7%
▶Black / African American(8)	11.2%
▶Asian(6)	0.7%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9)	0.7%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.1%
Multiracial / Other	4.4%

View full demographics →

Religious adherence

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents
Catholic	20.1%	40.1%
Evangelical Protestant	15.5%	30.9%
Mainline Protestant	6.7%	13.3%
Black Protestant	4.9%	9.9%
Other	2.0%	4.0%
Orthodox Christian	0.9%	1.8%
LDS (Mormon)	0.2%	0.4%
Non-religious	50.0%	—

View full religion →

Presidential results

Year	Result
2024	Trump+12.8
2020	Trump+5.9
2016	Trump+1.0
2012	Obama+25.9
2008	Obama+24.6
2004	Kerry+24.9
2000	Gore+24.6
1996	Clinton+33.9
1992	Clinton+26.7

View full election history →

Youngstown-Warren, OH is a metro area that has a population of 427,420. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+12.8. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

Youngstown-Warren, OH Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	43.2%	56.0%	R+12.8	R+6.9
2020	46.4%	52.3%	R+5.9	R+4.8
2016	46.6%	47.7%	R+1.0	R+26.9
2012	62.1%	36.2%	D+25.9	D+1.2
2008	61.0%	36.4%	D+24.6	R+0.3
2004	62.2%	37.2%	D+24.9	D+0.3
2000	60.3%	35.7%	D+24.6	R+9.3
1996	60.3%	26.4%	D+33.9	D+7.2
1992	51.2%	24.4%	D+26.7	D+3.1
1988	61.5%	37.8%	D+23.7	D+9.0
1984	56.8%	42.2%	D+14.6	D+6.9
1980	49.5%	41.8%	D+7.7	R+13.8
1976	59.5%	38.0%	D+21.5	D+28.1
1972	45.6%	52.2%	R+6.6	R+22.5
1968	52.7%	36.8%	D+15.9	R+25.1
1964	70.5%	29.5%	D+41.0	D+24.5
1960	58.2%	41.8%	D+16.4	D+24.4
1956	46.0%	54.0%	R+7.9	R+15.9
1952	54.0%	46.0%	D+8.0	R+14.4
1948	60.5%	38.1%	D+22.4	—

Political Identity

What defines Youngstown-Warren, OH?

Youngstown-Warren, OH has been trending Republican — 39pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Springfield, OH

Small-town rural republican 2

R+29.5

Similarity score87%

Clinton, IA

Small-town rural republican 2

R+18.8

Similarity score83%

Flint, MI

Small-town rural republican 2

Small-town rural republican 2

R+24.2

Similarity score79%

Fort Madison, IA

Small-town rural republican 2

Constituent Geography

Counties in Youngstown-Warren, OH

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Mahoning	226K	R+9.4	50,636	61,249	112,705	53.9%
Trumbull	201K	R+16.8	39,758	55,983	96,532	46.1%

2 countiesTotal votes: 209,237

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Youngstown-Warren, OH's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Youngstown-Warren, OH metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.

The 2016 election was decided by just 1.0 points — razor-thin
Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
Shifted 38.7 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Youngstown-Warren, OHCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 78.8%Black 11.2%Hispanic 4.7%Multiracial 4.4%Asian 0.7%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	78.8%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(8)	11.2%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)	4.7%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	4.4%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9)	0.7%	0.9%
▶Asian(6)	0.7%	6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.1%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

50.0%(213.9K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	20.1%	40.1%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	15.5%	30.9%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	6.7%	13.3%	—	—
Black Protestant	4.9%	9.9%	—	—
Other	2.0%	4.0%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.9%	1.8%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.2%	0.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	50.0%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Youngstown-Warren, OH metro area? 427,420 residents across 2 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Youngstown-Warren, OH vs National427K residents

24% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 9pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

427K

local

427KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.13%

local

0.13%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

77.2%

local

77.2%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$56,704

local

$56,704National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.8%

local

17.8%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

24.1%

local

24.1%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

70.7%

local

70.7%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

43.4 yrs

local

43.4 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.9%

local

13.9%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

22.4%

local

22.4%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.8%

local

1.8%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.5%

local

5.5%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

94.5%

local

94.5%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Youngstown-Warren, OH

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

63.4%

vs Previous

-3.2pp

Voting-Age Pop

330,107

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Youngstown-Warren, OH?

Lean RAvg margin: R+6.6 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+24.6

2012

D+25.9

2016

R+1.0

2020

R+5.9

2024

R+12.8

Elasticity

38.7pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+6.1

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Youngstown-Warren, OH split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (15/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+12.8	R+2.8	10.0pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 15.0pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Youngstown-Warren, OH sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Ohio(State)

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