Coalition arcs from Bush to Trump

The trajectory of Maricopa County from 2008 to 2024

Maricopa's cycle-by-cycle presidential arc from 2008 to 2024, in context of Arizona and the nation.

Counties that Obama won in 2012 but Trump won in 2016

The Obama-Trump flip cohort as a geographic and demographic phenomenon, traced from 2008 through 2024.

The Obama-Trump flip counties have moved 20.1 points right across 16 years, from D+9.4 in 2008 to R+10.

Where is Pennsylvania trending?

Pennsylvania's five-cycle partisan trajectory and what 2024 says about the direction.

Pennsylvania has moved 12.0 points right since 2008, closing 2024 at R+1.7 after Obama carried it by D+10.

Counties Trump won in 2024 by more than 20 points

The deep-red county set in 2024 as a geographic and demographic cohort, with multi-cycle context.

The counties Trump won by 20+ points ran R+63.7 in aggregate in 2024, while Kansas — one of the states housing this…

How has Wisconsin moved since 2000?

Wisconsin's presidential arc across seven cycles — direction, magnitude, and where the trajectory inflected.

Wisconsin sits at R+0.9 in 2024, finishing a 24-year arc just 1.1 points right of where it started in 2000 — a state…

Where has Georgia trended since 2008?

Georgia's 2008-2024 partisan arc as a multi-cycle realignment with measurable inflection points, compared against the national trajectory ov

Georgia ended 2024 at R+2.2, 3.0 points to the left of where it sat under Obama in 2008