Dayton
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — 1.3M residents — 11 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 79.1% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 3.4% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 10.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 23.9% | 48.9% |
| Catholic | 11.7% | 24.0% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.6% | 13.4% |
| Black Protestant | 3.7% | 7.6% |
| Other | 2.7% | 5.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.4% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 51.1% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+24.7 |
| 2020 | Trump+22.1 |
| 2016 | Trump+22.5 |
| 2012 | Romney+12.8 |
| 2008 | McCain+9.2 |
| 2004 | Bush+13.5 |
| 2000 | Bush+10.5 |
| 1996 | Clinton+0.8 |
| 1992 | Bush+5.5 |
Dayton is a media market that has a population of 1,285,300. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+24.7. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37.2% | 61.8% | R+24.7 | R+2.5 |
| 2020 | 38.1% | 60.2% | R+22.1 | D+0.3 |
| 2016 | 35.6% | 58.1% | R+22.5 | R+9.7 |
| 2012 | 42.7% | 55.4% | R+12.8 | R+3.6 |
| 2008 | 44.5% | 53.7% | R+9.2 | D+4.3 |
| 2004 | 43.0% | 56.5% | R+13.5 | R+2.9 |
| 2000 | 43.2% | 53.8% | R+10.5 | R+11.4 |
| 1996 | 44.9% | 44.1% | D+0.8 | D+6.3 |
| 1992 | 36.8% | 42.3% | R+5.5 | D+18.4 |
| 1988 | 37.7% | 61.6% | R+23.9 | D+5.4 |
| 1984 | 35.0% | 64.3% | R+29.2 | R+20.5 |
| 1980 | 42.0% | 50.8% | R+8.8 | R+5.2 |
| 1976 | 47.0% | 50.6% | R+3.6 | D+23.7 |
| 1972 | 35.0% | 62.4% | R+27.3 | R+24.3 |
| 1968 | 42.3% | 45.3% | R+3.0 | R+26.1 |
| 1964 | 61.5% | 38.4% | D+23.1 | D+37.2 |
| 1960 | 43.0% | 57.0% | R+14.1 | D+10.1 |
| 1956 | 37.9% | 62.1% | R+24.2 | R+7.0 |
| 1952 | 41.4% | 58.5% | R+17.2 | R+18.3 |
| 1948 | 50.2% | 49.1% | D+1.1 | — |
What defines Dayton?
Dayton voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.
Constituent Counties
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Counties in Dayton
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery | 536K | D+0.5 | 126,767 | 125,566 | 254,837 | 40.1% |
| Greene | 170K | R+19.8 | 35,575 | 53,399 | 90,041 | 14.2% |
| Clark | 135K | R+29.5 | 21,847 | 40,403 | 62,855 | 9.9% |
| Miami | 110K | R+45.1 | 15,969 | 42,677 | 59,188 | 9.3% |
| Wayne | 66K | R+32.4 | 8,828 | 17,526 | 26,827 | 4.2% |
| Darke | 52K | R+65.4 | 4,583 | 22,234 | 27,002 | 4.3% |
| Shelby | 48K | R+64.8 | 4,350 | 20,740 | 25,288 | 4.0% |
| Logan | 46K | R+56.2 | 5,027 | 18,182 | 23,406 | 3.7% |
| Mercer | 42K | R+66.7 | 3,865 | 19,710 | 23,753 | 3.7% |
| Preble | 41K | R+59.1 | 4,343 | 17,146 | 21,656 | 3.4% |
| Champaign | 39K | R+50.7 | 4,944 | 15,334 | 20,475 | 3.2% |
11 countiesTotal votes: 635,328
Ask the Historian
Explore Dayton's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 24.7% margin
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Dayton | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 79.1% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 10.8% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.8% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 3.4% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.7% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
48.9%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -29.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.9% | 48.9% | — | — | |
| 11.7% | 24.0% | — | — | |
| 6.6% | 13.4% | — | — | |
| 3.7% | 7.6% | — | — | |
| 2.7% | 5.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.4% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 51.1% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Dayton media market? 1,285,300 residents across 11 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
1.3M
Share of U.S. population
0.38%
Voting-age population
75.2%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$69,992
Poverty rate
13.0%
College degree
28.1%
Homeownership
68.0%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
39.9 yrs
Age 18–29
15.1%
Age 65+
19.1%
Foreign born
3.8%
Non-English at home
5.2%
English only
94.8%
Turnout in Dayton
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
65.8%
-1.3pp
966,020
1988–2024
How competitive is Dayton?
Safe RAvg margin: R+23.1 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+9.2
2012
R+12.8
2016
R+22.5
2020
R+22.1
2024
R+24.7
15.5pp
1
R+18.3
Do voters in Dayton split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (29/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+17.7 | R+24.9 | 7.2pp |
| President vs Senate | R+24.7 | R+17.7 | 7.0pp |
| President vs Governor | R+24.7 | R+24.9 | 0.2pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 13.1pp
Located In
Dayton sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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